Evaluating a picks track record before you pay

Before paying a pick seller, spend ten minutes with the record. Most records fail in the first two minutes. The ones that survive deserve closer reading, and here the arithmetic does most of the work. The steps below apply to any seller and to BetsBeats alike.

Step one: is the list complete?

Ask whether every pick the seller released is in the record. If you cannot tell, treat the record as a sample chosen by the seller. A complete list begins on a stated date, runs without gaps and includes losses. A hash published before each game helps because a gap then shows up as a hash with no result.

Step two: how many picks?

A count is the minimum for any percentage to mean something. Small samples produce impressive numbers by chance.

Step three: what prices?

The price decides what a win is worth. A record of 60% wins at -200 loses money, since -200 needs about 66.7% to break even. A record of 45% at +150 can do well, since +150 needs 40%. A record without prices is not a record of results, only a record of outcomes. Ask for the odds on every pick, or check whether the posts include them. BetsBeats posts the price and the minimum price on every main pick.

Step four: how was each pick fixed?

Ask what proves each pick existed before the game. A published hash does. A chat timestamp does not. This is the step that separates a record you can test from a record you have to believe. What makes a record checkable expands on it.

Step five: what are the units?

A unit is a staking size defined by the seller. If one pick risks 1 unit and the next risks 3, then adding up units mixes sizes in a way the seller controls. Look for a flat stake, or for each stake published with the pick. What a unit is covers the basics.

Step six: what changed over time?

If the format, the unit or the claims changed in the middle of the history, ask why. Changes are often a response to a bad run.

A one-page summary to write down

• Seller and platform, with the date you looked.
• Number of picks in the record, and the start date.
• Typical price.
• How each pick was fixed before the game.
• Whether losses appear.
• Anything that changed in the format.

Six lines, filled in honestly, are enough to decide whether to spend anything.

A short check of the free record is the cheapest way to start. Verify a few posted picks and read the losses before deciding. Everything here is for adults aged 21 or over, and every pick can lose.