Closing line value calculator: bet price against the close

The closing line value calculator compares the price you took with the price the market closed at. Enter both in American or decimal odds, and the closing price of the other side if you want the margin removed. It prints CLV in implied-probability points and in percent, and in cents for spread prices.

Implied probability of your price

47.62%

Implied probability of the close

50.00%

CLV, probability points

+2.38

CLV, percent

+5.00%

CLV, cents

+10

No-vig closing probability

47.83%

CLV against the no-vig close, points

+0.21

CLV against the no-vig close, percent

+0.43%

+110 against a close of +100 is +2.38 points (+5.00%) of implied probability, and +10 cents. The price taken was better than the close.

CLV compares prices. It does not say whether the bet won, and the CLV of one bet says very little about anything. Cents are the difference between two American prices at the same line, so a half-point move in a spread is not counted in them. This page is arithmetic only and does not predict a result.

The CLV formulas

CLV (points) = closing implied % − bet implied %

CLV (percent) = bet decimal ÷ closing decimal − 1

Implied % is 100 ÷ the decimal price. A positive number means the price taken was better than the close. Cents are the bet price minus the closing price on one scale where +100 and -100 are the same price, so +110 against +100 is 10 cents and +105 against -110 is 15. With the other side's closing price, the closing implied % is its share of both sides added together, which removes the margin.

Worked example

A bet at +110 (2.10) and a close of +100 (2.00). The bet implies 47.62% and the close implies 50.00%, so CLV is +2.38 points. In percent, 2.10 ÷ 2.00 − 1 = 5.0%. In cents, +110 against +100 is 10. If the other side closed at -120, the closing sides imply 50.00% and 54.55%, so the no-vig closing probability is 50.00 ÷ 104.55 = 47.83%, and CLV against it is +0.21 points (0.43%).

Questions

What is closing line value?

Closing line value is the difference between the price taken on a bet and the price the market closed at, usually just before the event starts. A bet price better than the close has positive CLV. It measures the price, not the result: a bet with positive CLV can lose and one with negative CLV can win.

Why measure CLV in probability points?

Prices on either side of even money are not on one scale: +110 to +100 and -110 to -120 look like the same ten-point move and are not. Implied probability puts every price on one 0 to 100 scale, so a difference of 2 points means the same thing at any price.

When is the no-vig close used?

A bet price carries the book's margin, and so does the raw closing price, so raw against raw compares like with like. The no-vig close takes the margin out of the closing side using both sides' prices, which is a stricter comparison for the bet price and usually gives the smaller figure.

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