Teaser calculator: break-even rate per leg and key numbers
The teaser calculator shows what a teaser has to hit to break even. Choose NFL or NBA, the teaser points, two to four legs and the teaser price. It prints the break-even rate for each leg, and for NFL it flags the legs whose teased line crosses the key numbers 3 and 7 and the legs that do not.
- Break-even rate per leg
- 72.37%
- Ticket pays (decimal)
- 1.909
- Legs crossing 3 and 7
- 2 / 2
| Leg | Line | Teased line | Key numbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -7.5 | -1.5 | Crosses 3 and 7 |
| 2 | +1.5 | +7.5 | Crosses 3 and 7 |
A 2-leg teaser at -110 pays 1.909 for every leg covering, so each leg has to win 72.37% of the time for the ticket to break even, if the legs are alike and independent. 2 of 2 legs cross both 3 and 7.
The break-even rate assumes every leg has the same chance and the legs do not affect each other. A push on one leg is handled differently by different books, and a ticket that loses a leg to a push can fall to fewer legs at a different price. Crossing a key number only says which results the teased line newly covers. It does not say how likely they are.
The teaser formulas
break-even rate per leg = decimal price ^ (−1 ÷ legs)
teased line = spread + teaser points
The decimal price is what the ticket pays for all legs covering, stake included, so p ^ legs × decimal = 1 at break-even. A key number is crossed when a margin of exactly 3 or 7, either way, is a result the original line did not cover and the teased line does. A whole-number line counts its own margin, which was a push and is now a cover.
Worked example
Two NFL legs teased 6 points at -110, which is 1.909. Leg 1: a favourite at -7.5 becomes -1.5, so a win by 2 to 7 now covers, and that takes in 3 and 7. Leg 2: an underdog at +1.5 becomes +7.5, so a loss by 2 to 7 now covers, which again takes in 3 and 7. The ticket pays 1.909 for both legs covering, so each leg needs 1.909 ^ (−1 ÷ 2) = 72.38% to break even. A leg at -3.5 teased to +2.5 crosses 3 only, and a leg at -13.5 teased to -7.5 crosses neither.
Questions
What is a teaser bet?
A teaser is a parlay in which the point spread or total of every leg is moved in the bettor's favour by the same number of points, in exchange for a lower price than a straight parlay pays. Every leg has to cover for the ticket to win. NFL teasers commonly use 6, 6.5, 7 or 10 points, and NBA teasers 4, 4.5 or 5.
Why do 3 and 7 matter in NFL teasers?
Football scores come in steps of 3 (a field goal) and 7 (a touchdown with the extra point), so more games end by exactly 3 or 7 than by other margins. A teased line that moves across those margins newly covers more of them. The teaser price is set by the book, whichever numbers a leg crosses.
How is the break-even rate per leg worked out?
The ticket pays one price when every leg covers. If each leg has the same chance p, all of them cover with chance p to the power of the number of legs, and the ticket breaks even when that times the decimal price is 1. So p is the decimal price to the power of minus 1 over the legs.
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