Expected value calculator — EV per bet from the odds and your probability
A price, and your own estimate of the chance it comes in. The arithmetic is exact; the estimate is yours, and the result is only as good as it is.
- Expected value of this bet
- +$12.50
- Expected value per $100
- +$12.50
- Break-even probability
- 40.0% The price's own implied probability, vig included.
If the true chance is 45.0% — your estimate — a $100.00 bet at +150 is worth +$12.50 on average. The price breaks even at 40.0%.
Expected value is an average over many bets like this one, not the result of the next one. A single bet still settles as a full win or a full loss.
Break-even probability at common prices
| American odds | Break-even probability |
|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -150 | 60.0% |
| -120 | 54.5% |
| -110 | 52.4% |
| +100 | 50.0% |
| +120 | 45.5% |
| +150 | 40.0% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
| +300 | 25.0% |
Expected value per $100 at −110, by estimate
| Your estimate | Expected value per $100 |
|---|---|
| 48.0% | −$8.36 |
| 50.0% | −$4.55 |
| 52.4% | $0.00 |
| 54.0% | +$3.09 |
| 56.0% | +$6.91 |
| 58.0% | +$10.73 |
How expected value is calculated
Expected value is your probability times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake. With decimal odds that is stake × (probability × decimal − 1). At +150 (2.50) and an estimate of 45%: 100 × (0.45 × 2.5 − 1) = +$12.50 per $100.
The break-even probability is 1 divided by the decimal odds — the same number as the implied probability. −110 breaks even at 52.38% and +150 at 40%. An estimate above it gives a positive expected value; below it, a negative one.
The output can never be better than the input. If the probability you type is not better informed than the market's own price, the expected value you read here is a property of the number you chose, not of the bet.
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