Break-even calculator: the win rate a betting price needs
The break-even calculator shows the win rate a betting price needs before it stops costing money. Enter American or decimal odds, or several prices for a run of bets at equal stakes. A price of -110 needs 52.38%. Enter a win rate of your own and it shows the worst price that still breaks even.
Win rate needed at a price
- Break-even win rate
- 52.38%
- Wins needed in 100 bets
- 52.38
At -110, a bet has to win 52.38% of the time to return what it risks. That is 52.38 wins in 100 bets.
Worst price for a win rate
- Worst American price
- -122
- Worst decimal price
- 1.818
At a win rate of 55%, the worst price that still breaks even is -122 (1.818 in decimal). A shorter price returns less than it risks at that rate, and a longer one returns more.
The win rate in the second box is your own figure. This page is arithmetic on the numbers typed in: it does not say what any bet's chance is and it does not predict a result.
The break-even formula
break-even rate = 1 ÷ decimal price
The decimal price is the total return on a $1 stake, stake included: -110 is 1.909 and +150 is 2.5. For a run of bets at equal stakes and different prices, divide the number of bets by the sum of their decimal prices. In reverse, the worst decimal price for a win rate is 1 ÷ the win rate.
Worked example
-110 is 1.909 in decimal, and 1 ÷ 1.909 = 0.5238, so a bet at -110 needs 52.38% to break even. Over 100 bets, 52.38 winners pay $100 each and 47.62 losers cost $110 each, and both come to about $5,238. For a run at -110, +150 and -200, the decimal prices are 1.909, 2.5 and 1.5, which add to 5.909, and 3 ÷ 5.909 = 50.77%. In reverse, a rate of 55% gives 1 ÷ 0.55 = 1.818, which is -122 in American odds.
Questions
What does break-even mean in sports betting?
Break-even is the win rate at which the money won equals the money lost over many bets at the same price. It is the implied probability of the price, margin included, which is why -110 needs 52.38% and not 50%.
Why is the break-even rate above 50% at -110?
A -110 bet risks $110 to win $100, so each loss costs more than each win pays. Winning exactly half of 100 bets at -110 returns $5,000 on wins and costs $5,500 on losses, a net of -$500 on $11,000 staked. The gap between 50% and 52.38% is the margin in the price.
How is break-even worked out for bets at different prices?
With equal stakes, divide the number of bets by the sum of their decimal prices. The result is the single win rate that would break even if every bet had the same chance. It is an average across the run, not a target for each bet, and unequal stakes need a weighted version.
Today's free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.
What every number on a betting line means · Responsible gambling · 21+ only. Gamble responsibly.