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Maths · the arithmetic behind a price

Maths

Why units make records comparable

Expressing results as a multiple of a fixed stake removes bankroll size from the comparison. Ten units of profit means the same thing whether a unit is five or five hundred.

Without a fixed denominator there is nothing to compare. Two bettors reporting '2,000 profit' may have staked 10,000 and 200,000 between them, and the second had a bad year while the first had a very good one.

Where it breaks A unit defined as one per cent of the current bankroll grows after wins and shrinks after losses. Historical figures then mix units of different sizes, and the total flatters whoever was winning while their unit was large.

Percentage-of-bankroll staking is a legitimate method and it is simply a different one. What cannot be done is reporting results in units while quietly using a moving unit, because the number stops meaning anything.

Which is where it goes wrong. A unit that changes with mood rather than by rule is the most common quiet corruption of a betting record, and it is invisible in the final figure.

What to do with it. Fix the unit in writing, in currency, and change it only on a schedule — quarterly, or at a defined bankroll threshold.

Check one. The tipster record checker takes a claimed record and its usual price, and shows the break-even rate and how often luck alone would produce that record.

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