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Maths · the arithmetic behind a price

Maths

What a better price is actually worth over a season

Moving from −110 to −105 lowers the break-even rate from 52.4 per cent to 51.2. That is 1.2 points of strike rate bought with no forecasting skill whatsoever.

Prices differ between books because their models differ and their liabilities differ. Taking the best available number on every bet is not an opinion about any sport; it is refusing to pay more than the market's asking price.

Over three hundred bets At 100 a bet, the difference between averaging −110 and averaging −105 is worth well over a thousand across a season. Most claimed edges are smaller than that, and this one requires no edge at all.

It compounds with everything else. A bettor with a genuine edge who takes bad prices can be a net loser, and the same selections at the best available prices can be profitable.

What follows from that is less comfortable. It is the only advantage available to literally everybody, which is exactly why it is the one almost nobody bothers to take.

What to do with it. Hold accounts at several books, check all of them before every bet, and treat taking the first price you see as a cost rather than a convenience.

Work it out. The no-vig calculator takes both sides of a market and returns the margin and the fair price of each.

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