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Process · bankroll, records and stopping

Process

Not betting every day

There is no obligation to hold an opinion. On most days the price and your view agree, and agreement is a pass rather than a failure to find something.

An edge comes from disagreement with the market, and genuine disagreements are rare by construction — if they were common the market would not be a market.

Three bets or eleven A card with three selections you can defend is better than one with eleven where eight were added to fill the evening. The eight are the ones that came from the smallest disagreements, which is where the edge is thinnest.

High-volume betting is viable if the edge per bet is real and the prices are good. What does not work is volume produced by lowering the standard to reach a number.

That is also the expensive part. Products, broadcasts and daily cards are all built around action, which makes doing nothing feel like failing to participate rather than like a decision.

What to do with it. Decide the minimum disagreement with the price that justifies a bet, and pass on everything below it without counting how many that leaves.

Today's free pick (not the main pick)

Today's free pick, for your email

Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.

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Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick

One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.

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