When a middle is worth trying

Holding both sides at different numbers so that a result between them wins both. Bet +3.5 early, take −7.5 later, and any margin of 4, 5, 6 or 7 collects twice.

It works because lines move, and a line that moves far enough leaves a gap between the number you took and the number now available. The gap is the entire product; without movement there is nothing to middle.

Even when the gap is real the middle rarely hits. The normal outcome is one leg winning and one losing, which costs the vig on both, and the payoff has to be large enough that the occasional hit covers many of those.

The problem arrives next. A one-number middle is usually a fee dressed as a free roll. The arithmetic looks like insurance and behaves like two separate bets with worse prices than either would have had alone.

What to do with it. Only middle when the gap covers a common range of margins, and count the vig on both legs as the cost of every attempt.

Work it out. The hedge calculator gives the stake that evens out the result for any two prices, and what is left on each side.