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Process · bankroll, records and stopping

Process

Specialising rather than covering everything

Knowing one competition well beats knowing eight badly, because each market is priced by people who follow that competition closely.

Every league's number is set against the best-informed opinion available in that league. Spreading attention across eight means competing with eight sets of specialists while being one in none of them.

Where the soft markets are The thinnest, least-modelled markets are in lower-profile competitions that few people follow. Those are exactly the ones a specialist can reach and a generalist cannot, because reaching them requires knowing the teams.

Breadth has one genuine use: more competitions means more opportunities to pass, which makes it easier to bet only when a price is genuinely wrong.

And that is the trap. Broad coverage feels like more opportunity and is usually more exposure at worse prices, because the extra bets come from the markets you understand least.

What to do with it. Pick one competition, follow it properly for a season, and add a second only when the first has produced a readable record.

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