What a realistic edge looks like

A genuinely good bettor wins somewhere around 54 to 56 per cent at standard prices. That produces losing months regularly and is a strong long-run result.

The market is the aggregate of everybody who risked money on the question, and beating it by a few percentage points is difficult. Anything advertised far above that range is advertising rather than measurement.

Higher rates exist in specific niches, at low limits, for short periods, before the market corrects. They are real and they are not what a season-long figure looks like.

That is also the expensive part. Expectations set by marketing make an honest process look broken, which is how people abandon something that was working in favour of something that was advertised.

What to do with it. Calibrate against 54 to 56 per cent at standard prices, and treat any claim far outside that as a claim about marketing rather than about betting.