How to read a published sample

Four fields make a record interpretable: how many selections, over what period, at what average price, and whether any were removed. Fewer than four and it cannot be assessed.

Each field independently determines the meaning. The count sets the confidence interval, the period sets whether conditions were comparable, the price sets the break-even rate, and the removals set whether the sample is a sample at all.

All four together do not prove skill either — they make the claim assessable, which is a much lower bar and one almost nothing clears.

That is also the expensive part. It is rare for all four to appear together, and each individual omission has a plausible-sounding explanation available.

What to do with it. Ask for all four before reading the headline figure, and treat any refusal as the answer to the question.

Check one. The tipster record checker takes a claimed record and its usual price, and shows the break-even rate and how often luck alone would produce that record.