How to check a tipster's record before you trust it

Three numbers decide whether a tipster's record is worth anything: how many picks it covers, the price they were taken at, and whether each pick was timestamped before the game by something the tipster could not edit.

The win rate on its own says almost nothing. Sixty per cent at even money is a strong record; sixty per cent on favourites priced at -200 loses money, because at -200 a pick has to win two times in three just to break even.

The timestamp matters more than either. A record assembled after the results are known can be any record at all, and deleted losses leave no trace in a spreadsheet or a screenshot.

Which is where it goes wrong. Records are usually advertised by their best stretch, in percentages, without the count or the prices — the three things that would let anybody check them.

What to do with it. Ask for the full count, the typical price and the place each pick was published before kick-off. Then put the numbers through the arithmetic before believing the percentage.

Check one. The tipster record checker takes a claimed record and its usual price, and shows the break-even rate and how often luck alone would produce that record.