Teaser break-even: the win rate each leg needs at common prices

Every leg of a teaser must win, so the per-leg break-even is the ticket's break-even raised to the power of 1 ÷ the number of legs. A two-team six-point teaser at -110 needs 72.4% on each leg, at -120 it needs 73.9%, and a three-team at +160 needs 72.7%. A straight bet at -110 needs 52.4%.

The teaser calculator gives the per-leg rate for any number of legs and any ticket price.

The calculation

Convert the teaser price to decimal, d. The ticket must win 1 ÷ d of the time. For n legs, each leg must win (1 ÷ d)^(1 ÷ n). For a two-team teaser at -110, d = 1.909 and 1 ÷ d = 0.5238, so each leg needs √0.5238 = 72.4%.

Example tickets

These prices are examples. Teaser prices differ between operators and change with the number of points.

• Two legs at -110: ticket 52.38%, per leg 72.4%
• Two legs at -120: ticket 54.55%, per leg 73.9%
• Three legs at +160 (2.60): ticket 38.46%, per leg 72.7%
• Three legs at +180 (2.80): ticket 35.71%, per leg 70.9%
• Four legs at +300 (4.00): ticket 25.00%, per leg 70.7%

The per-leg rate barely moves with the number of legs. It sits around 71% to 74% whichever ticket you pick. The price falls as the ticket shortens, so a two-team teaser at -120 is a harder test than a four-team at +300.

What the six points have to do

A straight spread is priced so that the chance of covering is near 50%. A six-point move changes the line, and the true chance of covering rises, but not to 72% unless the move passes through a high-density region of final margins. In the NFL, the margins 3 and 7 occur more often than others, which is why the construction that carries a leg through both is the one that gets attention. The next article lists which spreads that applies to, and the teaser maths article gives the case for it.

The calculator cannot say what a teased leg's true chance is. That is a separate estimate, with the usual error described for any probability in the estimate article. A leg that crosses neither number is priced the same as one that crosses both, and has the same hurdle.

Pushes change the ticket

A teased line often lands on a whole number, and the treatment of a pushed leg changes the break-even. Some places reduce the ticket by one leg and pay at the shorter price, and others lose the whole ticket, as described in the push article. The per-leg figures above assume a push is rare enough to ignore.

Basketball and other sports

The break-even arithmetic is identical in any sport, since it depends only on the price and the number of legs. What differs is how many points the teaser moves and what the margin distribution looks like, and none of that is in the formula. Basketball teasers move fewer points, usually four to five, and their prices differ.

Check your ticket. Put the legs and the price into the teaser calculator to see the rate each leg has to meet.