Lynx Edge Mercury in Close Contest
Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 10:00 PM ET · Mortgage Matchup Center
Minnesota Lynx 88, Phoenix Mercury 84, final. Our WNBA picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.
The next free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.
Quick answers
Who won Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury?
Minnesota Lynx beat Phoenix Mercury 88-84 at Mortgage Matchup Center on May 12, 2026.
Who was favored in Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury?
Phoenix Mercury were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -205 (about 67% implied). The underdog won.
In a thrilling encounter at the Mortgage Matchup Center, the Minnesota Lynx narrowly defeated the Phoenix Mercury with a final score of 88-84. This victory marks the Lynx's continued dominance over the Mercury, extending their series lead to 4-0. The game showcased intense competition, particularly in the fourth quarter, where both teams exchanged leads and executed critical plays.
The Mercury entered the game with a home record of 1-2, while the Lynx had a slightly better away record of 1-1. Despite the Mercury's recent struggles, they had shown resilience in their last ten games, holding a record of 5-5 with an average of 88.0 points scored and 84.9 points allowed. However, they were coming off a loss to the Golden State Valkyries, where they fell 79-95. In contrast, the Lynx had a record of 6-4 in their last ten games, averaging 82.6 points scored and 77.6 points allowed. They were looking to bounce back after a close defeat to the Atlanta Dream, losing 90-91.
Home court advantage has been a factor for the Mercury, who held a home record of 4-2 in their last six games. The Lynx, on the other hand, had a balanced away record of 2-2. The matchup was particularly significant as it featured teams that had faced each other multiple times in the past season, with the Mercury winning their last two encounters against the Lynx by scores of 86-81 and 84-76.
In terms of injuries, the Mercury were significantly impacted, missing key players such as Kelsey Plum (lower leg), Kahleah Copper (ankle), and Valeriane Ayayi, among others. The Lynx also faced challenges, with Elena Buenavida out due to a coach's decision and Antonia Delaere and Dorka Juhasz unavailable for non-injury-related reasons. The absence of these players likely influenced the strategies employed by both teams throughout the game.
The betting market, as provided by DraftKings, had the Mercury favored by 4.5 points, with a total set at 168.5. The odds reflected a competitive matchup, but ultimately, the Lynx's performance defied expectations, showcasing their ability to execute under pressure.
Conditions during the game were optimal for basketball, with both teams taking full advantage of the arena atmosphere. Viewers were treated to a display of skill, with standout moments including Nia Coffey's crucial three-pointer that helped the Lynx take the lead late in the fourth quarter. The final minutes were marked by tight defense and strategic plays, culminating in free throws that sealed the Lynx's victory.
As the game concluded, the Mercury's chances of winning were effectively eliminated, reflecting a home win probability of 0.0% at the end of the match. The Lynx's ability to capitalize on their opportunities and maintain composure in high-pressure situations proved decisive in this closely contested game.
Odds
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | PHX -4.5 | 168.5 o -108 / u -112 | Minnesota Lynx +170 · Phoenix Mercury -205 |
Injury report
- Kelsey PlumOutLower LegPhoenix Mercury
- Kahleah CopperOutAnklePhoenix Mercury
- Valeriane AyayiOutNot Injury RelatedPhoenix Mercury
- Kyara LinskensOutNot Injury RelatedPhoenix Mercury
- Jovana NogicOutNot Injury RelatedPhoenix Mercury
- Elena BuenavidaOutCoach's DecisionMinnesota Lynx
- Antonia DelaereOutNot Injury RelatedMinnesota Lynx
- Dorka JuhaszOutNot Injury RelatedMinnesota Lynx
Leaders
- PointsKahleah Copper30Phoenix Mercury
- AssistsAlyssa Thomas8Phoenix Mercury
- ReboundsNatasha Mack10Phoenix Mercury
- PointsNatasha Howard14Minnesota Lynx
- AssistsOlivia Miles7Minnesota Lynx
- ReboundsNatasha Howard11Minnesota Lynx
Recent form
Phoenix Mercury
Last 10: 5-5Streak L188 scored · 84.9 allowed per game4-2 at home
- L79-95at Golden State ValkyriesMay 11
- W99-66at Las Vegas AcesMay 9
- W86-60vs JAPANApr 30
- W108-104vs Chicago SkyApr 25
- L86-97vs Las Vegas AcesOct 11
- L88-90vs Las Vegas AcesOct 9
- L78-91at Las Vegas AcesOct 5
- L86-89at Las Vegas AcesOct 4
- W86-81vs Minnesota LynxSep 29
- W84-76vs Minnesota LynxSep 27
Minnesota Lynx
Last 10: 6-4Streak L182.6 scored · 77.6 allowed per game2-2 away
- L90-91vs Atlanta DreamMay 10
- W73-66vs Toronto TempoMay 2
- W88-79vs NIGERIAApr 28
- W77-66at Washington MysticsApr 25
- L81-86at Phoenix MercurySep 29
- L76-84at Phoenix MercurySep 27
- L83-89vs Phoenix MercurySep 23
- W82-69vs Phoenix MercurySep 21
- W75-74at Golden State ValkyriesSep 18
- W101-72vs Golden State ValkyriesSep 14
Standings
| Team | Games behind | Lost | Streak | Win % | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | - | 9 | L2 | .775 | 31 |
| Golden State | 2 | 11 | W4 | .725 | 29 |
| Las Vegas | 4 | 13 | W3 | .675 | 27 |
| Dallas | 7 | 16 | W4 | .600 | 24 |
| Portland | 15 | 24 | L1 | .400 | 16 |
| Los Angeles | 16 | 25 | W2 | .375 | 15 |
| Phoenix | 17 | 26 | W1 | .350 | 14 |
| Seattle | 23 | 32 | L1 | .200 | 8 |
Box score
| Stat | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | 32-64 | 26-71 |
| Field goal % | 50 | 37 |
| Three-pointers | 7-19 | 9-29 |
| Three-point % | 37 | 31 |
| Free throws | 17-24 | 23-33 |
| Free throw % | 71 | 70 |
| Rebounds | 43 | 31 |
| Offensive rebounds | 9 | 9 |
| Defensive rebounds | 34 | 22 |
| Assists | 20 | 20 |
| Steals | 5 | 11 |
| Blocks | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 15 | 11 |
| Team turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Technical fouls | 0 | 1 |
| Technical fouls, total | 0 | 1 |
| Flagrant fouls | 0 | 0 |
| Points off turnovers | 21 | 12 |
| Fast-break points | 6 | 17 |
| Points in the paint | 42 | 32 |
| Fouls | 28 | 22 |
| Largest lead | 5 | 8 |
| Lead changes | 17 | 17 |
| Time in front | 22 | 62 |
How the scoring went
- 3rd Quarter52-55DeWanna Bonner makes running layup (Valeriane Ayayi assists)
- 3rd Quarter54-55Courtney Williams makes 21-foot pullup jump shot
- 3rd Quarter54-56Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3rd Quarter54-57Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3rd Quarter56-57Antonia Delaere makes driving layup (Courtney Williams assists)
- 3rd Quarter57-57Antonia Delaere makes free throw 1 of 1
- 3rd Quarter57-58Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3rd Quarter57-59Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3rd Quarter59-59Emma Cechova makes 1-foot two point shot (Natasha Howard assists)
- 3rd Quarter59-61Kahleah Copper makes 1-foot two point shot
- 3rd Quarter59-63DeWanna Bonner makes two point shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
- 3rd Quarter61-63Natasha Howard makes 1-foot layup (Kayla McBride assists)
- 3rd Quarter61-64Jovana Nogic makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3rd Quarter61-65Jovana Nogic makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3rd Quarter62-65Courtney Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3rd Quarter65-65Antonia Delaere makes 24-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
- 3rd Quarter66-65Courtney Williams makes technical free throw
- 3rd Quarter66-66Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3rd Quarter66-67Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3rd Quarter68-67Courtney Williams makes 21-foot pullup jump shot
- 4th Quarter70-67Natasha Howard makes two point shot
- 4th Quarter70-69Natasha Mack makes 11-foot jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
- 4th Quarter72-69Emma Cechova makes two point shot
- 4th Quarter72-70Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
- 4th Quarter72-71Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
- 4th Quarter74-71Emma Cechova makes driving layup (Olivia Miles assists)
- 4th Quarter74-73Kahleah Copper makes driving layup (Kiana Williams assists)
- 4th Quarter74-74Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
- 4th Quarter76-74Emma Cechova makes 19-foot jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
- 4th Quarter76-76Kahleah Copper makes 21-foot two point shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
- 4th Quarter76-79Kiana Williams makes 24-foot running jump shot (Alyssa Thomas assists)
- 4th Quarter77-79Emma Cechova makes free throw 2 of 2
- 4th Quarter77-81Kahleah Copper makes 2-foot two point shot
- 4th Quarter80-81Nia Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Courtney Williams assists)
- 4th Quarter80-83Kahleah Copper makes driving layup (Alyssa Thomas assists)
- 4th Quarter82-83Natasha Howard makes driving layup (Courtney Williams assists)
- 4th Quarter84-83Nia Coffey makes 1-foot two point shot (Olivia Miles assists)
- 4th Quarter87-83Nia Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
- 4th Quarter88-83Olivia Miles makes free throw 1 of 2
- 4th Quarter88-84Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
Win probability
Above the line favours Phoenix Mercury, below favours Minnesota Lynx.
Venue
- Mortgage Matchup CenterPhoenix, AZ
- Attendance10826
- OfficialsIsaac Barnett, Kevin Fahy, Leah Lanie
Elsewhere
- Russell Westbrook joins board of basketball league Project B
- How do the WNBA playoffs work? Dates, format and more
- Wings' Li to miss FIBA World Cup due to lost passport
- 2026 FIBA Women's World Cup: Team USA analysis, rankings, rosters
- Why are there no WNBA games for two weeks? More about FIBA break
- 2026 WNBA championship odds: Lynx still odds-on title favorites; Aces, Valkyries next
- U.S. coach Kara Lawson calls World Cup most challenging
- Sky's Skylar Diggins (knee) to miss remainder of season
WNBA rules and settlement
These two, other days
- Lynx Edge Mercury in Thrilling FinishJul 13, 2026
- Lynx Dominate Mercury in WNBA ShowdownJun 1, 2026
- Phoenix Mercury Defeats Minnesota Lynx 86-81 in Thrilling MatchupSep 28, 2025
- Phoenix Mercury Defeats Minnesota Lynx 84-76Sep 26, 2025
- Mercury Triumph in Overtime Against LynxSep 23, 2025