Canadiens Edge Maple Leafs in Close Contest

What we said beforehand

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face off against the Montreal Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena on September 29, 2026. Both teams enter this matchup with a record of 0-0-0, making it a fresh start for each side as they begin their NHL campaigns. The rivalry between these two teams adds an extra layer of excitement, as they have a long history of competitive matchups.

In their last five games, the Maple Leafs have struggled, recording three losses against the Canadiens, including a 4-1 defeat on September 19, 2026, and a 4-3 loss in overtime on the same day. They managed to secure two wins against the Ottawa Senators, with scores of 4-2 and 6-1, but overall, their recent form shows a record of 2-3. The Maple Leafs have averaged 2.8 goals per game while allowing 4.7 goals over their last ten games, indicating significant defensive issues.

Conversely, the Canadiens have shown better form recently, winning four out of their last five games. They defeated the Maple Leafs twice in their last matchups and also secured a 3-2 overtime victory against the Senators on September 21, 2026. Their recent record stands at 4-1, with an average of 2.8 goals scored and only 2.4 goals allowed per game over their last ten outings. This indicates a more balanced performance compared to the Maple Leafs.

When considering home and away performances, the Maple Leafs have a home record of 1-3 in their last ten games, while the Canadiens have excelled on the road with a record of 5-1. This disparity could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game, as the Maple Leafs will need to improve their home form to challenge the Canadiens effectively.

In terms of head-to-head matchups, the Maple Leafs have struggled against the Canadiens, with a record of 1-3 in their last four meetings. The most recent encounter saw the Canadiens triumph 4-1, indicating that they have had the upper hand in this rivalry lately. The Maple Leafs' only victory in the last four games against the Canadiens came on October 8, 2025, where they won 5-2.

Injury concerns could also impact the game significantly. The Maple Leafs will be without Cade Webber (elbow), Elvis Merzlikins (shoulder), William Villeneuve (knee), Max Domi (back), and Dakota Joshua (abdomen), all of whom are on injured reserve. This presents a challenge for the Maple Leafs as they will need to adjust their lineup accordingly. The Canadiens will be missing Oliver Kapanen (lower body) and have Bryce Pickford (undisclosed), Lucas Condotta (undisclosed), and Kaiden Guhle (groin) on injured reserve as well. Ivan Demidov (foot) is listed as day-to-day, which adds uncertainty to their roster heading into the game.

The betting odds from DraftKings indicate that the Maple Leafs are favored at -115 on the money line, while the Canadiens are priced at -105. The spread is set at -1.5 for the Maple Leafs, with a total of 6.5 goals for the game. The over is listed at -108 and the under at -112, suggesting that the market anticipates a moderately high-scoring game.

As the game approaches, viewers should watch for how the Maple Leafs address their defensive issues, particularly given their recent struggles in allowing goals. The Canadiens will likely look to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the Maple Leafs, especially considering their recent success against them. Additionally, the performance of the players filling in for the injured Maple Leafs will be crucial in determining the game's outcome. With both teams eager to start the season on a positive note, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash in the NHL.