Lightning Defeat Islanders 5-3 in Competitive Matchup
Saturday, October 10, 2026, 7:30 PM ET · UBS Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3, final. Our NHL picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.
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Quick answers
Who won Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders?
Tampa Bay Lightning beat New York Islanders 5-3 at UBS Arena on October 10, 2026.
Who was favored in Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders?
Tampa Bay Lightning were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -180 (about 64% implied). The favorite won.
The Tampa Bay Lightning secured a 5-3 victory over the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, marking a significant win as they extend their lead in the series to 2-0. This matchup was particularly noteworthy as it showcased the Lightning's strong away performance against an Islanders team struggling to find consistency at home. Tampa Bay improved their away record to 5-1, while the Islanders fell to 2-4 at home this season.
The Lightning entered the game with a record of 4-1-0, riding a three-game winning streak. Their recent form has seen them average 2.4 goals scored and 2.9 goals allowed per game over their last ten outings. In contrast, the Islanders had a record of 2-3-0, with a scoring average of 2.4 goals and an average of 2.8 goals allowed during the same span. The Islanders, however, managed to break a streak of losses with a recent win against the Chicago Blackhawks, where they won 4-1 on October 8.
In terms of home and away performance, the Islanders have struggled, particularly on the road where they have yet to secure a win this season (0-3). Their home record stands at 3-4, and they have averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 goals allowed in their last five games. The Lightning, meanwhile, have excelled at home with a record of 4-1.
Historically, the Lightning have had the upper hand in recent meetings against the Islanders, winning all three encounters in the current season prior to this game. The Islanders had hoped to turn the tide but were unable to capitalize on their home ice advantage.
Injuries played a role in the matchup, particularly for the Islanders, who were without Alexander Romanov due to a knee injury and had Mathew Barzal on injured reserve, also with a knee issue. The Lightning were missing Emil Lilleberg due to an undisclosed injury and had Yanni Gourde on injured reserve with a hip injury.
The betting lines from DraftKings indicated Tampa Bay as the favorite at -180, with a spread of 1.5 and a total set at 5.5. The odds for the over were -112, while the under was slightly favored at -108. The market reflected confidence in the Lightning's ability to secure a win, given their recent form and head-to-head success.
The game conditions were favorable for both teams, with a competitive atmosphere at UBS Arena. Fans witnessed a fast-paced game with multiple lead changes, particularly in the second period where both teams exchanged goals. Jake Guentzel opened the scoring for the Lightning early in the first period, followed by Brandon Hagel, who scored twice, showcasing his offensive prowess.
The scoring plays were dynamic, with the Islanders responding to the Lightning's early goals. Tony DeAngelo and Matthew Schaefer found the net for the Islanders, leveling the score at various points. However, the Lightning's offensive depth proved too much as they pulled ahead in the third period with two more goals from Hagel, solidifying their lead.
Overall, the matchup highlighted the Lightning's ability to perform under pressure and their depth in scoring, while the Islanders will need to reassess their strategy moving forward, particularly in light of their injuries and home performance. The final score of 5-3 reflects a hard-fought battle, but ultimately, the Lightning's experience and execution led them to victory.
What we said beforehand
The New York Islanders will face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at UBS Arena on October 10, 2026. This matchup is particularly noteworthy as the Lightning have a strong recent record, winning three consecutive games, while the Islanders are looking to build on a recent win after a mixed start to the season.
The Islanders come into this game with a record of 2-2-0. In their last five games, they have managed to secure two victories, with a notable 6-0 win against the New Jersey Devils on October 3 and a 4-1 win against the Chicago Blackhawks on October 8. However, they also suffered losses against the New Jersey Devils (4-1) and the New York Rangers (5-2). Their recent form shows an average of 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 goals allowed in their last five games, indicating a slight improvement in their offensive output.
In contrast, the Tampa Bay Lightning have been on a roll, boasting a 3-1-0 record. They have won their last three games, including a 3-2 shootout victory against the Florida Panthers on September 26, a 3-1 win over the Washington Capitals, and a 4-1 triumph against the Philadelphia Flyers. Their scoring average in the last five games stands at 2.6 goals scored and 2.6 goals allowed, demonstrating a balanced performance.
When it comes to home and away records, the Islanders have struggled slightly at home with a 3-4 record in their last ten games, while the Lightning have fared better on the road, holding a 1-4 record in their last five away games. This could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game, as the Islanders look to leverage their home advantage.
Historically, the Islanders have had the upper hand in their recent meetings with the Lightning, winning all three encounters in the 2026 season. Their last matchup was on December 13, 2025, where the Islanders won 3-2. This trend could provide the Islanders with some confidence heading into the game.
In terms of injuries, the Islanders will be missing Alexander Romanov due to a knee injury, and Mathew Barzal is currently on injured reserve with a knee issue. The Lightning will also be without Emil Lilleberg, who is out with an undisclosed injury, and Yanni Gourde, who is on injured reserve with a hip injury. The absence of key players could impact both teams' performances.
The betting market, as provided by DraftKings, favors the Lightning with odds of -180 for the away team. The spread is set at 1.5, and the total for the game is 5.5, with over odds at -112 and under odds at -108. These figures indicate that the market expects a competitive matchup, with a slight lean towards the Lightning.
As for the conditions, the game will take place at UBS Arena, where the Islanders will aim to capitalize on their home ice. Fans should watch for Bo Horvat, who leads the Islanders with four goals and five points, and Nikita Kucherov, who leads the Lightning with six points, as both players are crucial to their respective teams' offensive strategies.
Overall, this game presents an intriguing clash between the Islanders and the Lightning, with both teams looking to secure valuable points early in the season.
Odds
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TB -180 | 5.5 o -112 / u -108 | Tampa Bay Lightning -180 · New York Islanders +150 |
Injury report
- Alexander RomanovOutKneeNew York Islanders
- Mathew BarzalInjured ReserveKneeNew York Islanders
- Emil LillebergOutUndisclosedTampa Bay Lightning
- Yanni GourdeInjured ReserveHipTampa Bay Lightning
Leaders
- GoalsTony DeAngelo1New York Islanders
- AssistsOndrej Palat2New York Islanders
- PointsTony DeAngelo2New York Islanders
- GoalsBrandon Hagel3Tampa Bay Lightning
- AssistsMaxwell Crozier2Tampa Bay Lightning
- PointsBrandon Hagel4Tampa Bay Lightning
Recent form
New York Islanders
Last 10: 3-7Streak W12.4 scored · 2.8 allowed per game3-4 at home
- W4-1vs Chicago BlackhawksOct 8
- L2-5at New York RangersOct 6
- W6-0vs New Jersey DevilsOct 3
- L1-2at Toronto Maple LeafsSep 30
- L1-2vs Carolina HurricanesApr 14
- L1-4vs Montreal CanadiensApr 12
- L0-3vs Ottawa SenatorsApr 11
- W5-3vs Toronto Maple LeafsApr 9
- L3-4at Carolina HurricanesApr 4
- L1-4vs Philadelphia FlyersApr 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Last 10: 5-5Streak W32.4 scored · 2.9 allowed per game1-4 away
- W3-2vs Minnesota WildOct 8
- W4-1vs Philadelphia FlyersOct 5
- W3-1vs Washington CapitalsOct 3
- L1-5at New York RangersOct 1
- L2-4vs New York RangersApr 15
- W4-3vs Detroit Red WingsApr 13
- W2-1at Boston BruinsApr 11
- L1-2at Montreal CanadiensApr 9
- L2-6at Ottawa SenatorsApr 7
- L2-4at Buffalo SabresApr 6
Standings
| Team | Ot losses | Lost | Points | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| Ottawa | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| Boston | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| Toronto | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Florida | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Montreal | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Buffalo | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Detroit | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Carolina | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| NY Rangers | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Washington | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| New Jersey | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Columbus | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| NY Islanders | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Box score
| Stat | Tampa Bay Lightning | New York Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked shots | 14 | 16 |
| Hits | 18 | 30 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 2 |
| Shots total | 26 | 23 |
| Power play goals | 1 | 1 |
| Power play opportunities | 4 | 2 |
| Power play pct | 25.0 | 50.0 |
| Short handed goals | 0 | 0 |
| Shootout goals | 0 | 0 |
| Faceoffs won | 25 | 26 |
| Faceoff percent | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| Giveaways | 14 | 18 |
| Penalties | 3 | 5 |
| Penalty minutes | 9 | 13 |
How the scoring went
- 1st1-0Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none
- 1st2-0Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (1), Max Crozier (1)
- 2nd2-1Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (1)
- 2nd3-1Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (6), Brandon Hagel (4)
- 2nd3-2Matthew Schaefer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (1), Ondrej Palat (2)
- 2nd3-3Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Bo Horvat (2), Matias Maccelli (3)
- 3rd4-3Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Crozier (2), Ryan McDonagh (1)
- 3rd5-3Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (1), Nikita Kucherov (7)
Venue
- UBS ArenaElmont, NY
- Attendance17345
- OfficialsEric Furlatt, Dylan Blujus, Chris Schlenker, Jonathan Deschamps
Elsewhere
- Utah Mammoth vs. Buffalo Sabres: Game Highlights
- Hagel completes hat trick with 2 late goals as Lightning beat Islanders 5-3
- Carolina Hurricanes vs. Chicago Blackhawks: Game Highlights
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. St. Louis Blues: Game Highlights
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche: Game Highlights
- Rickard Rakell scores in shootout to lift Penguins over Stars, 2-1
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