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MLB · Final

Rays Overcome Guardians in Decisive Game 5

Saturday, October 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET · Progressive Field

Quick answers

Who won Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

Tampa Bay Rays beat Cleveland Guardians 7-3 at Progressive Field on October 17, 2026.

Who was favored in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

Tampa Bay Rays were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -108 (about 52% implied). The favorite won.

In a crucial Game 5 of the MLB postseason, the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 7-3 at Progressive Field, securing their place in the next round of the playoffs. This victory marked the conclusion of a tightly contested series that was tied 2-2 going into the game, showcasing the intensity and competitiveness of both teams. The Guardians, with a home record of 85-77, faced the formidable Rays, who boasted an impressive away record of 98-64.

The game began with an early lead for the Guardians as DeLauter singled to right, bringing Kwan home in the first inning. However, the Rays quickly responded in the third inning when Aranda singled to center, allowing Díaz to score, leveling the game at 1-1. The Rays took control in the sixth inning with a double from Caminero, scoring Aranda and placing Simpson on third. The seventh inning proved pivotal for Tampa Bay, as they scored four runs, including a notable play where Aranda's single resulted in two runs due to errors by the Guardians' right fielder DeLauter.

Cleveland attempted to rally back, with Bazzana hitting a homer in the seventh inning, but it was not enough to overcome the deficit. The Rays continued to extend their lead in the ninth inning when Díaz hit a home run, scoring Palacios and solidifying their victory.

In terms of recent form, the Guardians had a record of 6-3-1 over their last ten games, averaging 4.3 runs scored and allowing 3.1 runs per game. Their last five games showed a record of 3-1, with an average of 2.6 runs scored and 1.6 runs allowed. Conversely, the Rays had a record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games, averaging 2.5 runs scored and allowing 3.8 runs per game. Their last five games reflected a 2-2 record with an average of 2.4 runs scored and 2.8 runs allowed.

Home advantage played a role in the Guardians' performance, as they had a home record of 3-2 in their last five games. The Rays, however, struggled away, with a record of 1-4 in their last five away games. The series history also favored the Guardians, who had a 7-3-1 record against the Rays in their previous meetings over the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

Injuries impacted both teams, with the Guardians missing Rhys Hoskins, Colin Holderman, and Andrew Walters due to various injuries. The Rays were without Gavin Lux, Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Shane McClanahan, and Jacob Melton, all of whom were on the injured list.

The betting market reflected the competitive nature of the game, with DraftKings pricing the Rays at -108 for the money line and the Guardians at -104. The spread was set at 1.5, with a total of 6.5 runs for the game, indicating expectations of a closely contested matchup.

Weather conditions were not specified in the block, but the atmosphere at Progressive Field was likely charged, given the stakes of the game. Fans witnessed a hard-fought battle, with both teams showing determination and skill.

As the game concluded, the Guardians faced disappointment, while the Rays celebrated a crucial victory that propelled them forward in the postseason. The performance of key players, particularly in the seventh inning, proved decisive, highlighting the importance of capitalizing on opportunities in high-pressure situations.

What we said beforehand

The Cleveland Guardians will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field on October 18, 2026, in a matchup that has significant implications for both teams. Currently, the Guardians lead the series 2-1, making this game pivotal as they look to secure their position against a strong Rays squad.

The Guardians come into this game with a home record of 85-77, while the Rays boast an impressive away record of 98-64. In their last five games, the Guardians have shown resilience, winning three times, including a recent victory over the Rays on October 15, where they triumphed 3-2. Their last five results are as follows: a win against the Chicago White Sox (9-5), a win against the White Sox (2-0), a win against the Rays (7-3), a loss to the Rays (1-3), and another win against the Rays (3-2). This gives them a scoring average of 4.3 runs per game at home, while allowing an average of 3.1 runs.

In contrast, the Rays have had a mixed bag of results in their last five games, winning two and losing three. Their recent games include a loss to the Guardians (3-2), a win against the Guardians (3-1), a loss to the Guardians (7-3), a win against the New York Yankees (4-3), and another win against the Yankees (5-2). Their scoring average in these games is 2.5 runs, with an average of 3.8 runs allowed.

Home-field advantage may play a crucial role in this matchup, as the Guardians have performed well at home with a record of 3-2 in their last five home games. The Rays, however, have struggled on the road, with a record of 1-4 in their last five away games. This trend could be significant as the Guardians look to capitalize on their home turf.

In terms of injuries, the Guardians will be without Rhys Hoskins (10-Day IL, back), Colin Holderman (15-Day IL, wrist), and Andrew Walters (out, elbow). The Rays also have key players sidelined, including Gavin Lux, Edwin Uceta, and Jonathan Heasley, all on the 60-Day IL, along with Shane McClanahan (out, forearm) and Jacob Melton (60-Day IL, hamstring). The absence of these players could impact both teams' performance.

Weather conditions for the game are expected to be cool, with a temperature of 49°F and no precipitation forecasted. Wind gusts could reach up to 9 mph, which may affect gameplay.

The betting market reflects the competitive nature of this matchup, with DraftKings listing the Rays at -108 and the Guardians at -103 on the moneyline. The spread is set at 1.5, with a total of 6.5 runs for the game, indicating a closely contested battle.

Fans should watch for key performances from players like Chase DeLauter, who leads the Guardians with a batting average of .287, and Angel Martinez, who has hit 18 home runs. For the Rays, Chandler Simpson leads with a .306 batting average, while Junior Caminero has been a standout with 42 home runs and 101 RBIs. With both teams vying for supremacy, this matchup promises to be an exciting encounter.

Odds

BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
DraftKingsTB -108 6.5 o -117 / u -103 Tampa Bay Rays -108 · Cleveland Guardians -104

What these prices pay on $100 · What these numbers mean

Injury report

  • Rhys Hoskins10-Day-ILBackCleveland Guardians
  • Colin Holderman15-Day-ILWristCleveland Guardians
  • Andrew WaltersOutElbowCleveland Guardians
  • Gavin Lux60-Day-ILShoulderTampa Bay Rays
  • Edwin Uceta60-Day-ILShoulderTampa Bay Rays
  • Jonathan Heasley60-Day-ILElbowTampa Bay Rays
  • Shane McClanahanOutForearmTampa Bay Rays
  • Jacob Melton60-Day-ILHamstringTampa Bay Rays

Recent form

Cleveland Guardians

Last 10: 6-3-1Streak D14.3 scored · 3.1 allowed per game3-2 at home

  • D0-0vs Tampa Bay RaysOct 17
  • W3-2vs Tampa Bay RaysOct 15
  • L1-3at Tampa Bay RaysOct 14
  • W7-3at Tampa Bay RaysOct 13
  • W2-0vs Chicago White SoxOct 11
  • W9-5at Chicago White SoxOct 9
  • W9-3at Chicago White SoxOct 7
  • L3-4vs Chicago White SoxOct 5
  • L0-3vs Chicago White SoxOct 3
  • W9-8vs Texas RangersSep 28

Tampa Bay Rays

Last 10: 4-5-1Streak D12.5 scored · 3.8 allowed per game1-4 away

  • D0-0at Cleveland GuardiansOct 17
  • L2-3at Cleveland GuardiansOct 15
  • W3-1vs Cleveland GuardiansOct 14
  • L3-7vs Cleveland GuardiansOct 13
  • W4-3at New York YankeesOct 8
  • W5-2vs New York YankeesOct 6
  • W1-0vs New York YankeesOct 3
  • L4-13at Toronto Blue JaysSep 28
  • L1-5at Toronto Blue JaysSep 27
  • L2-4at Toronto Blue JaysSep 26

Standings

TeamGames behindLostStreakWin %Won
Tampa Bay-64L1.60598
New York4.568W1.57893
Boston1175L1.53787
Baltimore18.582L1.49179
Toronto1983W1.48879
Cleveland-77L1.52585
Chicago178W1.51984
Minnesota885W1.47577
Detroit986L1.46976
Kansas City1693W1.42669

How the scoring went

  1. 1st Inning0-1DeLauter singled to right, Kwan scored, DeLauter out stretching at second.
  2. 3rd Inning1-1Aranda singled to center, Díaz scored.
  3. 6th Inning2-1Caminero doubled to left, Aranda scored, Simpson to third.
  4. 7th Inning4-1Aranda singled to right, Palacios scored on error and Walls scored on fielding error by right fielder DeLauter, Aranda to third.
  5. 7th Inning5-1Simpson hit sacrifice fly to right, Aranda scored.
  6. 7th Inning5-2Bazzana homered to right (374 feet).
  7. 7th Inning5-3Rocchio singled to left, Bailey scored, Martínez to second.
  8. 9th Inning7-3Díaz homered to right (349 feet), Palacios scored.

Win probability

Above the line favours Cleveland Guardians, below favours Tampa Bay Rays.

Venue

  • Progressive FieldCleveland, Ohio
  • Attendance33355
  • OfficialsMark Ripperger, Chad Fairchild, Adam Hamari, Nestor Ceja, Carlos Torres, Bill Miller

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Fixture data from the league feeds. The report was written from the recorded facts for this game and nothing else.