If-bets: bets that only exist conditionally
An if-bet is a chain of two or more wagers placed at once, where each wager is only activated if the one before it meets a stated condition — usually a win, sometimes a win or a push. If the condition fails the chain stops and the remaining bets are never placed. The bets settle in the stated order regardless of when the games actually finish.
It exists to cap total exposure. Because a later leg is only funded if an earlier one has already returned, the maximum loss on the whole chain is the first leg's stake, no matter how many legs it contains. The book carries no extra risk in offering it, which is why the prices are the ordinary straight prices.
The cap is paid for with the branch where the first leg loses and the second would have won. In that case a straight bettor collects and the if-bettor never had the bet. The if-bet is not a better price on either game; it is less money going through, and less money through negative-priced bets loses less on average.
That is also the expensive part. Chains of four and five are common and largely decorative. By the fourth link the probability that the bet is ever placed is small, so the bettor has planned four opinions and will typically only ever hold one or two of them, while feeling as though the whole card is live.
What to do with it. Write out every branch of the chain and the cash result at each one before placing it.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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