Backing favourites for the feeling of winning

Short prices win often and return little. A high strike rate on heavy favourites is entirely compatible with losing money every month, because the break-even rate rises with the price.

Winning is pleasant and losing is not, so a market that delivers frequent small wins is emotionally cheap. Enormous numbers of people bet this way, and books price the popular side of a market slightly worse because of it.

Favourites are not systematically bad bets. They are systematically popular ones, which means the price is usually a little shorter than it should be, and that small difference is the whole margin at those odds.

And that is the trap. The comfort is the product. A market that makes you feel competent most evenings is a market you will keep using, which is the behaviour the pricing is built around.

What to do with it. Convert every short price to a break-even rate before betting, and check whether you honestly expect to clear it.