Taking overs because sport is more fun that way

An over keeps a game interesting for its entire length. An under means spending the second half hoping nothing happens, which is a worse evening even when it is a better bet.

Books know the distribution of preferences as well as the distribution of scores. The popular side of a total carries slightly worse pricing almost everywhere, and the popular side is the over in nearly every sport.

Structural factors genuinely push some sports toward the over — late fouling in basketball, empty nets in hockey, overtime almost everywhere. Those are in the number already, which is the point.

What follows from that is less comfortable. 'Fade the public over' is itself a crowded position and has been for years, so the contrarian version is priced too. There is no free side of this.

What to do with it. Notice when you want the over for reasons that have nothing to do with the number, and require a clearer case before taking it.