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Reading ticket percentages as if they were money

Ticket counts and handle are different quantities. Lines follow handle, and almost every published figure is a ticket count.

A line moves when enough money arrives to change the operator's exposure or its opinion. One large bet moves it; a thousand small ones on the other side frequently do not, and the ticket count records the thousand.

Eighty per cent that is not eighty per cent Eight hundred tickets at ten dollars is 8,000. Two hundred at a thousand is 200,000. The published figure says 80 per cent on one side and the money is 96 per cent on the other, and the line will move toward the money.

Handle percentages, where they are published, are genuinely informative — and the gap between the two figures is more informative still, because it is where the disagreement between small and large money shows up.

The problem arrives next. Ticket percentages are published constantly and handle almost never, which is the clearest available signal about which of the two is a marketing number.

What to do with it. Ignore any 'public betting' figure that does not state whether it is tickets or money, and treat that omission as an answer.

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