ENSign in

Mistakes · the expensive ones, with the reason

Mistakes

Assuming a whole number is a considered one

A total or spread sitting on a whole number allows a push, and its position often reflects where money balances rather than a precise estimate of the game.

The half point is bought and sold constantly; the whole number is where two opposing sets of opinion were made to meet. The refund built into it has a price, and that price is inside the odds beside it.

What the refund costs A total of 44 rather than 44.5 includes the chance of exactly 44 points as a stake return. That chance is priced into the odds, and a reader treating 44 as merely 'the number' is paying for an option they did not ask for.

Whole numbers are not worse bets. They are different bets, with a third outcome, and the price should and usually does reflect that.

What follows from that is less comfortable. The push feels like a neutral event and is not — it is a bet that consumed time and capital and returned nothing, which is a cost even when it is not a loss.

What to do with it. Notice whether the number can push, and check the price against the half-point alternative before choosing.

Today's free pick (not the main pick)

Today's free pick, for your email

Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.

Unlock today's pick in Telegram →Telegram channel: sealed picks and the record, 21+ →

or by email

Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick

One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.

More Mistakes