Writing the reason down before betting

One sentence naming the mechanism that connects the factor to the scoreboard. If it cannot be written, there is no reason — there is a feeling with a fixture attached.

Writing forces the causal claim into the open. A great many angles survive only while they remain unspoken, and collapse the moment somebody has to state what causes what.

It also makes review possible on process rather than on result. A losing bet with a sound written thesis and a winning one with none are different events, and only the written record can distinguish them.

What follows from that is less comfortable. The sentence is easy to skip because the reasoning feels obvious at the time. It stops feeling obvious a month later, which is when the review happens.

What to do with it. Write one sentence per bet before placing it, and read those sentences rather than the results at review time.