Park factors are permanent, not situational
Dimensions, altitude, foul territory and prevailing wind make some parks reliably higher-scoring than others, every game, for as long as the park exists.
Unlike weather or personnel, the ballpark does not change between fixtures. It is a fixed multiplier applied to every total in that venue, and it is applied before anybody looks at the teams.
Park effects are not uniform across outcome types. A park can suppress home runs and inflate doubles, which changes the shape of scoring rather than only its volume.
Which is where it goes wrong. They are the best-known adjustment in baseball, which is precisely why there is nothing left in simply knowing about them — the number already contains the park.
What to do with it. Use park factors to understand why a total is where it is, not as a reason to bet it.
The archive
What the published price did in MLB
2,496 games in MLB that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between March 26, 2026 and October 29, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 1,395 | 2,457 | 56.8% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 1,033 | 2,496 | 41.4% |
| The total went over | 1,191 | 2,496 | 47.7% |
| The home side won | 1,305 | 2,496 | 52.3% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 8.84
- Winning margin, on average
- 3.52
How wide the games were
Over 3,372 finished games in MLB with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 3
- One in ten by this or more
- 7
- The widest
- 22
How they ended
Over 3,339 finished games in MLB whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 246 | 3,339 | 7.4% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 3,339 | 0.3% |
137 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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