Wind in a small park
Direction matters more than speed. Fifteen miles an hour blowing out in a small park is one of the largest single weather effects in any sport; the same wind blowing in suppresses scoring just as sharply.
A batted ball's carry is highly sensitive to air movement, and a park with short fences converts marginal fly balls into home runs. Small dimensions amplify what the wind does.
Most parks are far less sensitive. In a large park with high fences the same wind changes the total by a fraction of what it does in a small one, which is why the effect cannot be applied league-wide.
The problem arrives next. The forecast hours before first pitch is not the forecast at first pitch, and the total generally stops moving before the wind does.
What to do with it. Check wind direction relative to the specific park's dimensions, and only where the park is small enough for it to matter.
The archive
What the published price did in MLB
2,496 games in MLB that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between March 26, 2026 and October 29, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 1,395 | 2,457 | 56.8% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 1,033 | 2,496 | 41.4% |
| The total went over | 1,191 | 2,496 | 47.7% |
| The home side won | 1,305 | 2,496 | 52.3% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 8.84
- Winning margin, on average
- 3.52
How wide the games were
Over 3,372 finished games in MLB with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 3
- One in ten by this or more
- 7
- The widest
- 22
How they ended
Over 3,339 finished games in MLB whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 246 | 3,339 | 7.4% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 3,339 | 0.3% |
137 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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