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Verification · what can actually be checked

Verification

Four questions to ask any service before paying

When was the selection sent, what was the number at that moment, how many selections in total, and who decides the result. Four questions, each with a short factual answer.

Each one targets a specific way a record can be unfalsifiable: no timestamp, no price, a curated set, and self-grading. Together they cover essentially every mechanism by which a claim becomes uncheckable.

What the answers look like 'Published at 13:00 with a hash, line was −2.5, 214 selections this season, results from the league's own scoreboard.' Four sentences, all checkable, none of them a claim about winning.

A service that answers all four has not proved it is good. It has made itself assessable, which is the necessary first step and is rarer than being good.

Which is where it goes wrong. A service that answers none is not necessarily dishonest — but it has made itself impossible to check, and there is no way for a buyer to tell the two apart.

What to do with it. Ask all four in writing before paying, and keep the answers.

Today's free pick (not the main pick)

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Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.

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Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick

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