What weather means in Major League Soccer
The useful version of this is narrower than the popular one. Wind is the only weather that reliably moves a number. Rain and cold move it far less than instinct suggests.
In Major League Soccer specifically: Weekly, mostly, and lineups are published an hour before kick-off — the shortest confirmed-team window of any sport here.
In soccer a strong wind flattens crossing and set pieces, so it takes chances away rather than creating them, and what it moves is the total rather than the result.
That is also the expensive part. The forecast at 9am is not the forecast at kick-off, and the number stopped moving before the weather stopped changing.
The archive
What the published price did in MLS
483 games in MLS that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between February 21, 2026 and November 2, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 240 | 480 | 50.0% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 227 | 483 | 47.0% |
| The total went over | 249 | 483 | 51.6% |
| The home side won | 221 | 483 | 45.8% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 3.24
- Winning margin, on average
- 1.34
How wide the games were
Over 608 finished games in MLS with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 1
- One in ten by this or more
- 3
- The widest
- 7
How they ended
Over 603 finished games in MLS whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 7 | 603 | 1.2% |
| Settled on a shootout | 7 | 603 | 1.2% |
126 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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