What weather means in the NFL
This is simpler than it is usually made to sound. Wind is the only weather that reliably moves a number. Rain and cold move it far less than instinct suggests.
In the NFL specifically: A week between games means every injury is reported, every line is fully formed by Thursday, and the market has more time on an NFL game than on anything else.
In baseball wind direction in a small park is worth a real piece of the total on its own; in football fifteen miles an hour changes what an offence is willing to attempt.
The problem arrives next. The forecast at 9am is not the forecast at kick-off, and the number stopped moving before the weather stopped changing.
The archive
What the published price did in the NFL
276 games in the NFL that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 25, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 155 | 263 | 58.9% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 117 | 276 | 42.4% |
| The total went over | 143 | 274 | 52.2% |
| The home side won | 134 | 276 | 48.6% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 44.26
- Winning margin, on average
- 11.25
How wide the games were
Over 457 finished games in the NFL with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 8
- One in ten by this or more
- 24
- The widest
- 38
How they ended
Over 457 finished games in the NFL whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 27 | 457 | 5.9% |
8 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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