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Getting started · a bet from zero

Getting started

Cash out: what the button is actually offering you

Cash out is the book offering to buy your open position back before the event finishes. Accept, and the bet ends immediately at the amount shown regardless of what happens afterwards. The figure offered is derived from the current price on your selection, with the book's margin taken out of it a second time.

Your open bet is a claim on a future payment, and the current market gives that claim a value. The book calculates what it would cost to close its own exposure, then offers you less than that, because the offer is itself a new transaction it prices to its own advantage. Nothing about the button is a courtesy; it is a second bet with a second fee.

What the position is worth, done by hand 100 at +200 returns 300 if it wins. The other side is now available at +120. Staking 136.36 there returns 300 whichever way the event goes, against a total outlay of 236.36 — locking 63.64 of profit, so the position is worth 163.64 in hand. A cash-out button offering 150 is offering 13.64 less than the same lock done manually.

It is not always the worse option. If you cannot bet the other side — no account, no market open, no liquidity — then the button is the only way to close a position, and closing a position you no longer want is a legitimate thing to want to do.

And that is the trap. The offer arrives at exactly the moments judgement is worst: while winning and nervous, or while losing and hopeful. It is presented as protection, and taking it habitually pays the margin twice on every bet you place.

What to do with it. Before accepting an offer, price the hedge yourself using the current market on the other side. If you cannot do that quickly, that is a reason to leave the bet alone rather than a reason to press the button.

Work it out. The hedge calculator gives the stake that evens out the result for any two prices, and what is left on each side.

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