Double chance: two outcomes on one ticket
Double chance backs two of the three results at once. 1X wins on a home win or a draw, X2 on a draw or an away win, 12 on either team winning. It loses only on the single outcome not covered, and it is settled as one bet at one price.
It is the combination of two of the three prices sold as a single ticket, and the fair combined price is exactly the harmonic combination of the two: one divided by the sum of the two implied probabilities. Unlike draw no bet, this construction carries precisely the margin already present in the two legs and adds none of its own.
The replication requires both legs to be available at those prices and the stake split so that either branch returns the same. If one leg is unavailable or the split is fiddly at small stakes, the packaged price is the only version on offer and the comparison is academic.
Here is the catch. It feels safe because it wins about two-thirds of the time, and the price is short for exactly that reason. At 1.25 the break-even rate is 80.00 per cent — higher than the market's own estimate of the two outcomes — and the ticket that loses one time in five is the one people size largest.
What to do with it. Compute one divided by the sum of the two implied probabilities from the 1X2 board, and compare it with the posted double chance before taking it.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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