Early prices, and why they are worse than they look

A number posted days out carries less information and a larger margin, and is protected by limits so small the market is effectively a survey.

The book knows less early and prices defensively. The compensation offered is a number nobody has argued with; the cost is a margin nobody has competed away.

For genuinely long-term opinions — season win totals, futures — early is often the only time the market is reachable at all.

The problem arrives next. Early prices are marketed as an advantage and are frequently the opposite, because the informational disadvantage falls on the bettor rather than on the book.

What to do with it. Bet early only when your thesis does not depend on information that has not arrived yet.