Alternate totals: moving the number, not the market

An alternate total is the same over/under at a different threshold. Each rung is a two-way market with its own prices, and the rungs are nested — every point the number moves makes the over less likely and the under more likely, without exception. Settlement is identical to the main total in every respect.

The ladder steps differently from a spread ladder because the underlying distribution is different. A margin can be positive or negative and is roughly symmetric around the spread; a total is bounded below at zero and unbounded above, so the rungs above the number and the rungs below it do not price as mirror images.

Sport shape decides how many usable rungs exist. A basketball total has dozens of them and each step is small; a hockey or football total has very few, because moving from 6 to 7 goals is an enormous change in a sport that scores in small integers, and the price gaps between rungs are correspondingly huge.

Here is the catch. A far under at −350 looks close to automatic and pays 28.57 on 100. Four winners and one loser across five bets is 4 × 28.57 = 114.29 against 100 lost, a profit of 14.29 on 500 staked. Three winners and two losers is 85.71 against 200 lost, a loss of 114.29. The whole result sits on one extra loss.

What to do with it. Work out how many consecutive wins a single loss erases at the price on offer, and decide whether you believe the number that many times in a row.