Method-of-victory and margin markets
These cut a result into how it was achieved. In combat sports: each fighter by knockout, by submission, by decision. In team sports: winning margin bands, correct score, or winning-margin-and-side combined. Every slice is mutually exclusive, and together the slices for one side must account for every way that side can win.
Because the slices partition the result, they are checkable against the straight price in a way no other market is. Add up every slice belonging to one competitor and the total should reproduce that competitor's moneyline probability, plus whatever additional margin has been loaded onto the sliced market.
The raw sum is an asking price rather than an opinion, so the comparison is against the sliced market's own overround and not against zero. Some gap is structural in any market with more outcomes; the question is how much, and the addition is the only way to see it.
What follows from that is less comfortable. The method market sits directly beneath the moneyline and reads as the same opinion at a longer price. It is the same opinion with a second correct guess attached and a materially wider cut, and neither of those two facts is displayed.
What to do with it. Add every slice for one side, compare the total with that side's straight price, and treat the difference as the fee for the extra specificity.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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