Division, conference and qualification markets
These are outrights on a sub-competition rather than on the trophy: win the division, win the conference, reach the final, qualify for the postseason. The fields are small, so the overrounds are far tighter than an outright title market, and each is settled the moment its own question is answered rather than at the end of the season.
They are the components the title price is built from, which makes them internally checkable in a way a standalone outright is not. A team cannot win the title without winning its conference, so the title probability must be smaller than the conference probability, and the ratio between them is the market's implied chance of winning the final.
The ratio is only approximate because each of the three markets carries its own margin, and the margins do not cancel. De-vigging each market against its own field first makes the conditional probability meaningfully tighter, though it will still be an estimate.
What follows from that is less comfortable. Division and title tickets on the same team read as two positions and behave as close to one. A slip carrying both is far more concentrated than the number of lines on it suggests, and it will move as a single block on any news about that team.
What to do with it. Divide the title probability by the conference probability and ask whether the implied conditional is a number you would bet at.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
Today's free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.