A lineup card and a player prop in Major League Soccer
This is simpler than it is usually made to sound. Soccer has no listed-lineup condition: a bet placed before the sheet is published is a bet on a squad rather than on an eleven, and nothing refunds it when the eleven surprises you. There is nothing to ask for, so the only protection is waiting.
A player prop is a bet on one person's output rather than on the result, and in Major League Soccer it behaves like this: Shots and cards, mostly. Goal props on individual players are close to unpriceable in a sport with two or three goals a game.
The league's own contribution: The clock never stops, and stoppage time is at the referee's discretion — the only major sport where nobody, including the participants, knows exactly when the game ends.
The problem arrives next. Betting early buys a price and sells certainty, and in soccer that trade is unusually expensive. And on this market in particular: A prop is correlated with the game state in ways the price often does not fully carry: a decided game changes what every player on the field is trying to do, and usually removes the minutes or the attempts the number was built on.
The archive
What the published price did in MLS
483 games in MLS that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between February 21, 2026 and November 2, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 240 | 480 | 50.0% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 227 | 483 | 47.0% |
| The total went over | 249 | 483 | 51.6% |
| The home side won | 221 | 483 | 45.8% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 3.24
- Winning margin, on average
- 1.34
How wide the games were
Over 608 finished games in MLS with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 1
- One in ten by this or more
- 3
- The widest
- 7
How they ended
Over 603 finished games in MLS whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 7 | 603 | 1.2% |
| Settled on a shootout | 7 | 603 | 1.2% |
126 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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