Raising stakes to recover a loss

Increasing the stake after a loss assumes an edge that the losing run provides no evidence for, and it concentrates exposure at exactly the moment the bankroll is smallest.

Bankroll growth is multiplicative, so losses compound against you. Doubling after each loss means the amount needed to recover grows faster than the ability to recover it, and four steps is enough for that to become severe.

There is no version of this that works. Progressive staking systems rearrange when the losses arrive; they never change the expected total, and they always increase the chance of hitting zero.

What follows from that is less comfortable. It does not feel like gambling while it is happening. It feels like decisiveness, and like refusing to accept an unfair result — which is why intelligent people do it.

What to do with it. Write a maximum stake down before the session and treat it as fixed regardless of what has happened during it.