Believing a guarantee about outcomes

Nobody can guarantee a result in a game of chance. A promise to do so is not exaggeration — under consumer law it is a prohibited claim, and regulators treat it as such.

The words are used because they work. 'Lock', 'guaranteed winner' and 'can't lose' describe a certainty that does not exist in any sport, and the certainty is the product being sold rather than the selection.

A guarantee about terms is a legitimate and useful commitment. The distinction is whether the promise concerns something the seller controls or something nobody controls.

And that is the trap. The two kinds of guarantee are deliberately presented in the same register, so a reader who is reassured by one is being invited to accept the other.

What to do with it. Sort every promise into 'about billing' or 'about results'. Trust the first when it is verifiable, and discard the second entirely.

Check one. The tipster record checker takes a claimed record and its usual price, and shows the break-even rate and how often luck alone would produce that record.