Wind is the only weather that reliably moves a number
Around fifteen miles an hour is where an NFL offence starts changing what it attempts. Rain and cold move totals far less than instinct suggests, and often not at all.
Wind affects the passing game and the kicking game specifically, which are the two highest-variance scoring mechanisms. Rain affects grip and footing for both sides roughly equally, which mostly cancels.
Cold has a real effect at extremes and a much smaller one across the range most games are played in. A thirty-degree game and a fifty-degree game are far more similar than the broadcast suggests.
Which is where it goes wrong. The forecast at nine in the morning is not the forecast at kick-off, and the number usually stops moving before the weather stops changing. A total priced on the morning's wind can be badly wrong by the afternoon.
What to do with it. Check wind speed and direction close to kick-off rather than at posting time, and ignore temperature unless it is extreme.
The archive
What the published price did in the NFL
276 games in the NFL that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 25, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 155 | 263 | 58.9% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 117 | 276 | 42.4% |
| The total went over | 143 | 274 | 52.2% |
| The home side won | 134 | 276 | 48.6% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 44.26
- Winning margin, on average
- 11.25
How wide the games were
Over 457 finished games in the NFL with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 8
- One in ten by this or more
- 24
- The widest
- 38
How they ended
Over 457 finished games in the NFL whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 27 | 457 | 5.9% |
8 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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