NBA · Final

Timberwolves Edge Heat in Close Contest

125

124

Saturday, October 10, 2026, 8:00 PM ET · Kaseya Center

Minnesota Timberwolves 125, Miami Heat 124, final. Our NBA picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.

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Quick answers

Who won Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat?

Minnesota Timberwolves beat Miami Heat 125-124 at Kaseya Center on October 10, 2026.

Who was favored in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat?

Minnesota Timberwolves were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -148 (about 60% implied). The favorite won.

In a tightly contested game, the Minnesota Timberwolves narrowly defeated the Miami Heat with a final score of 125-124 at the Kaseya Center. This matchup was particularly interesting as both teams entered the game with identical records of 2-1, setting the stage for a competitive showdown. The Timberwolves managed to secure the victory, marking their second win over the Heat this season, having previously defeated them 122-94 on January 7 and 125-115 on January 3.

The Miami Heat came into this game riding a four-game winning streak, showcasing a strong recent form with a record of 6-4 over their last ten games. They averaged 126.7 points scored while allowing 123.3 points during this stretch. Their home record stood at 4-1, indicating a solid performance at the Kaseya Center. In contrast, the Timberwolves had a mixed recent form with a 5-5 record in their last ten games, averaging 118.3 points scored and 115.8 points allowed. Their away record was 4-4, showing they could compete on the road but were not as dominant as the Heat at home.

In terms of injuries, both teams faced challenges. The Heat had several players listed as day-to-day, including Kylor Kelley (calf), Pelle Larsson (illness), Bam Adebayo (rest), Andrew Wiggins (rest), and Klay Thompson (rest). The Timberwolves also had key players on the injury report, including Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Ayo Dosunmu, Rudy Gobert, and Anthony Edwards, all listed as day-to-day due to rest. This situation added an element of uncertainty to the lineup for both teams, potentially impacting their strategies and performance.

The betting market reflected the competitive nature of the game, with DraftKings listing the Timberwolves as 3.5-point favorites. The total points over/under was set at 231.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. The moneyline odds favored the Timberwolves at -148, while the Heat were positioned at +124.

As the game unfolded, the Heat and Timberwolves exchanged leads, with both teams showcasing their offensive capabilities. The scoring plays in the fourth quarter highlighted the intensity of the matchup. Notably, Norchad Omier made crucial free throws that pushed the Timberwolves ahead, while Bez Mbeng's three-pointer kept the Heat in contention. The final moments were marked by back-and-forth scoring, with Antonio Reeves ultimately sealing the victory for Minnesota with a driving shot.

Conditions in the Kaseya Center were conducive to a thrilling basketball experience, with fans witnessing a high-stakes game that lived up to its billing. Viewers were treated to a showcase of talent from both sides, with standout performances contributing to the nail-biting finish.

In summary, the Timberwolves' victory over the Heat not only continued their dominance in the season series but also underscored the competitive nature of both teams as they navigate the early part of the season. With both teams showing promise, the matchup served as a testament to the excitement that NBA basketball can deliver.

What we said beforehand

The Miami Heat will host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Kaseya Center on October 11, 2026, marking the start of their series. The Heat come into this matchup with a perfect home record of 2-0, while the Timberwolves have a mixed away record of 1-1. This game is intriguing not only because of the teams' current standings but also due to their recent performances and the implications of their respective injuries.

The Miami Heat have shown strong form recently, winning their last four games. In their last five outings, they have secured victories against teams like the New Orleans Pelicans (128-118) and the Toronto Raptors (129-105). Their scoring average over these five games stands at 130.8 points, while they have allowed an average of 117.0 points. This offensive prowess is complemented by their overall home record of 4-1 in their last five home games, where they have averaged 126.7 points scored and 123.3 points allowed.

On the other hand, the Minnesota Timberwolves have had a more inconsistent run, with a record of 5-5 over their last ten games. They are currently on a one-game losing streak, having lost to the Indiana Pacers (112-123) in their most recent game. In their last five games, they have averaged 123.2 points scored and allowed 122.0 points, indicating a relatively high-scoring trend. Their away record is 4-4, but they will need to improve their performance to compete effectively against the Heat.

Historically, the Timberwolves have had the upper hand in their recent meetings with the Heat, winning both encounters in the 2026 season. In their last matchup on January 7, 2026, the Heat fell to the Timberwolves with a score of 94-122. Earlier that month, the Timberwolves also defeated the Heat 125-115. This history may play a psychological role as the Heat look to turn the tide in their favor.

In terms of injuries, both teams are dealing with key players listed as day-to-day. The Heat have Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Davion Mitchell all marked as day-to-day due to rest. The Timberwolves also have Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, and Ayo Dosunmu in a similar situation. The status of these players could significantly impact the game, especially considering their contributions to their respective teams.

The betting market reflects the Timberwolves as 3.5-point favorites according to DraftKings, with a total points line set at 231.5. The odds for the Timberwolves to win outright are -155, while the Heat are listed at +130 for a moneyline victory. The spread suggests that the Timberwolves are expected to win by a narrow margin, which aligns with their recent form and historical success against the Heat.

As for the conditions leading into the game, fans can expect a competitive atmosphere at the Kaseya Center. The Heat will be looking to leverage their home-court advantage, while the Timberwolves will aim to continue their success against Miami. Viewers should watch for how both teams adapt to the absence of key players and how their offensive strategies unfold, particularly the Heat's high-scoring capabilities against the Timberwolves' defense.

This matchup promises to be an exciting start to the series, with both teams eager to establish momentum early in the season.

Odds

Book	Spread	Total	Moneyline
DraftKings	MIN -3.5	231.5 o -108 / u -112	Minnesota Timberwolves -148 · Miami Heat +124

What these prices pay on $100 · What these numbers mean

Injury report

Kylor KelleyDay-To-DayCalfMiami Heat
Pelle LarssonDay-To-DayIllnessMiami Heat
Bam AdebayoDay-To-DayRestMiami Heat
Andrew WigginsDay-To-DayRestMiami Heat
Klay ThompsonDay-To-DayRestMiami Heat
Jaden McDanielsDay-To-DayRestMinnesota Timberwolves
Jonathan KumingaDay-To-DayRestMinnesota Timberwolves
Ayo DosunmuDay-To-DayRestMinnesota Timberwolves
Rudy GobertDay-To-DayRestMinnesota Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsDay-To-DayRestMinnesota Timberwolves

Leaders

PointsRyan Conwell22Miami Heat
AssistsRyan Conwell9Miami Heat
ReboundsNick Richards10Miami Heat
PointsBones Hyland23Minnesota Timberwolves
AssistsJaylen Clark5Minnesota Timberwolves
ReboundsTrey Lyles8Minnesota Timberwolves

Recent form

Miami Heat

Last 10: 6-4Streak W4126.7 scored · 123.3 allowed per game4-1 at home

W128-118vs New Orleans PelicansOct 8
W129-105at Toronto RaptorsOct 3
W143-117vs Atlanta HawksApr 12
W140-117at Washington WizardsApr 10
L114-128at Toronto RaptorsApr 9
L95-121at Toronto RaptorsApr 7
W152-136vs Washington WizardsApr 4
L129-147vs Boston CelticsApr 1
W119-109vs Philadelphia 76ersMar 30
L118-135at Indiana PacersMar 29

Minnesota Timberwolves

Last 10: 5-5Streak L1118.3 scored · 115.8 allowed per game4-4 away

L112-123at Indiana PacersOct 7
W116-97at Milwaukee BucksOct 6
W132-126vs New Orleans PelicansApr 13
W136-132at Houston RocketsApr 11
L120-132at Orlando MagicApr 8
W124-104at Indiana PacersApr 7
L108-122vs Charlotte HornetsApr 5
L103-115at Philadelphia 76ersApr 3
L108-113at Detroit PistonsApr 2
W124-94at Dallas MavericksMar 31

Standings

Team	Games behind	Lost	Streak	Win %	Won
Portland	-	0	W1	1.000	1
Minnesota	-	1	W1	.667	2
Utah	0.5	1	L1	.500	1
Denver	0.5	1	W1	.500	1
Oklahoma City	1.5	2	L2	.000	0
Washington	-	0	W2	1.000	2
Orlando	0.5	0	W1	1.000	1
Miami	0.5	1	L1	.667	2
Atlanta	0.5	1	W2	.667	2
Charlotte	1.5	1	L1	.000	0

Box score

Stat	Minnesota Timberwolves	Miami Heat
Field goals	41-87	43-94
Field goal %	47	46
Three-pointers	14-34	16-34
Three-point %	41	47
Free throws	29-33	22-27
Free throw %	88	81
Rebounds	46	45
Offensive rebounds	11	12
Defensive rebounds	35	33
Assists	26	27
Steals	10	9
Blocks	7	2
Turnovers	13	14
Team turnovers	0	0
Technical fouls	0	0
Technical fouls, total	0	0
Flagrant fouls	0	0
Points off turnovers	20	23
Fast-break points	23	14
Points in the paint	46	54
Fouls	25	22
Largest lead	14	6
Lead changes	19	19
Time in front	78	18

How the scoring went

4th Quarter91-87Bez Mbeng makes running layup (Myron Gardner assists)
4th Quarter91-91Vladislav Goldin makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Myron Gardner assists)
4th Quarter92-91Zyon Pullin makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter93-91Zyon Pullin makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter93-92Ryan Conwell makes free throw 1 of 3
4th Quarter93-93Ryan Conwell makes free throw 2 of 3
4th Quarter93-94Ryan Conwell makes free throw 3 of 3
4th Quarter93-97Vladislav Goldin makes tip shot
4th Quarter95-97Zyon Pullin makes driving layup
4th Quarter95-97Ryan Conwell makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter95-100Ian Schieffelin makes 4-foot layup (Vladislav Goldin assists)
4th Quarter96-100Norchad Omier makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter97-100Norchad Omier makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter100-100Norchad Omier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Evans assists)
4th Quarter100-103Ryan Conwell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)
4th Quarter100-104Bez Mbeng makes free throw clear path 1 of 2
4th Quarter100-105Ryan Conwell makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter100-106Ryan Conwell makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter103-106Isaiah Evans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Antonio Reeves assists)
4th Quarter105-106Zyon Pullin makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
4th Quarter108-106Antonio Reeves makes 26-foot running jump shot (Norchad Omier assists)
4th Quarter110-106Zyon Pullin makes 5-foot two point shot
4th Quarter110-108Vladislav Goldin makes layup (Myron Gardner assists)
4th Quarter112-108Zyon Pullin makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
4th Quarter112-109Vladislav Goldin makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter112-110Vladislav Goldin makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter115-110Isaiah Evans makes 27-foot three pointer (Rocco Zikarsky assists)
4th Quarter115-113Bez Mbeng makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Conwell assists)
4th Quarter117-113Zyon Pullin makes 5-foot two point shot (Norchad Omier assists)
4th Quarter118-113Rocco Zikarsky makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter119-113Rocco Zikarsky makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter119-116Ian Schieffelin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Conwell assists)
4th Quarter120-116Norchad Omier makes free throw 1 of 2
4th Quarter121-116Norchad Omier makes free throw 2 of 2
4th Quarter121-119Bez Mbeng makes 26-foot three pointer (Vladislav Goldin assists)
4th Quarter121-121Ryan Conwell makes 9-foot two point shot
4th Quarter123-121Rocco Zikarsky makes layup (Norchad Omier assists)
4th Quarter123-123Vladislav Goldin makes two point shot
4th Quarter123-124Vladislav Goldin makes free throw 1 of 1
4th Quarter125-124Antonio Reeves makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot

Win probability

Above the line favours Miami Heat, below favours Minnesota Timberwolves.

Venue

Kaseya CenterMiami, FL
Attendance19600
OfficialsJohn Goble, Ashley Moyer-Gleich, Brent Haskill, Pat O'Connell, Nate Cearley, Zach Zarba, Sean Corbin, Jenna Schroeder