SMU Mustangs Defeat Missouri State Bears 34-24

What we said beforehand

The SMU Mustangs will host the Missouri State Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on September 27, 2026. This matchup is intriguing as the Mustangs have a strong home record of 4-0 this season, while the Bears are struggling with an away record of 1-2. SMU enters the game with a home record of 2-1 for the current season, while Missouri State has a record of 1-2 overall.

In their last five games, the Mustangs have a record of 3-2, with an average of 37.4 points scored and 23.8 points allowed per game. Their recent performances include a notable victory against the UC Davis Aggies, where they won decisively with a score of 56-10. However, they also suffered a loss to the Louisville Cardinals, ending that game at 31-41. On the other hand, the Bears have struggled recently, with a record of 1-4 in their last five games, averaging 27.2 points scored and 35.4 points allowed. Their most recent game resulted in a loss to the Marshall Thundering Herd, with a close score of 24-30.

When looking at their overall performance, the Mustangs have averaged 33.9 points scored and 19.9 points allowed in their last ten games, while the Bears have averaged 26.9 points scored and 27.6 points allowed. The Mustangs have had a strong showing at home, winning 7 of their last 10 games, while the Bears have a mixed record of 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.

In terms of previous meetings, the Mustangs and Bears have faced off once before, with SMU winning that encounter 28-10 on September 13, 2025. This historical context may provide some motivation for both teams as they prepare for this upcoming clash.

Injuries could play a role in the game, but the block does not provide specific details on player availability. It will be crucial to monitor any updates leading up to the game to understand how injuries may impact team performance.

The betting lines set by DraftKings indicate that SMU is favored by 30.5 points, with a total over/under of 60.5 points. The moneyline shows SMU at -9000 and Missouri State at +2500, reflecting the disparity in expectations for this matchup.

Weather conditions are expected to be warm, with a temperature around 87°F and gusts of wind reaching 14 mph. There is no precipitation forecasted, which should provide a clear playing field for both teams.

Viewers should watch for standout performances from key players. SMU's Kevin Jennings leads in passing yards with 989 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Kendrick Raphael has been a strong contributor in the rushing game, accumulating 275 yards and 4 touchdowns. For Missouri State, Skyler Locklear has thrown for 597 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while Ramone Green Jr. has rushed for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. This matchup promises to showcase some exciting talent on both sides.