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NHL · Final

Tampa Bay Lightning Defeat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2

Saturday, March 7, 2026, 7:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2, final. Our NHL picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.

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Quick answers

Who won Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2 at Scotiabank Arena on March 7, 2026.

Who was favored in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Tampa Bay Lightning were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -218 (about 69% implied). The favorite won.

In a decisive matchup at Scotiabank Arena, the Tampa Bay Lightning triumphed over the Toronto Maple Leafs with a final score of 5-2. This victory marked the Lightning's dominance in the season series, winning 2 out of 3 encounters against the Maple Leafs. The game showcased a strong performance from the Lightning, who have been able to maintain a solid record of 39 wins, 18 losses, and 4 overtime losses, compared to the Maple Leafs' record of 27 wins, 26 losses, and 11 overtime losses.

The Lightning entered the game with a recent record of 6-4 over their last ten games, although they were on a four-game losing streak. They averaged 3.4 goals scored per game and allowed 3.2 goals against during this stretch. Conversely, the Maple Leafs struggled significantly, recording just 3 wins in their last 10 games, with a dismal streak of six consecutive losses. They averaged only 2.6 goals scored while allowing 3.8 goals against in their recent games.

At home, the Maple Leafs had a record of 0-2 in their last two games, while the Lightning had a strong away record, although they faced difficulties recently, with an away record of 0-3 in their last three games. This game was particularly crucial for the Maple Leafs, who were looking to break their losing streak, but they faced significant challenges due to injuries affecting key players.

The injury report for the Maple Leafs was concerning, as they were without several important players, including Auston Matthews (knee), Max Domi (back), Dakota Joshua (upper body), and Zack MacEwen (knee), along with Chris Tanev on injured reserve (abdomen). The Lightning also dealt with injuries, having Pontus Holmberg out with a collarbone injury, but their roster remained more intact compared to the Maple Leafs.

The game started with a goal from Matias Maccelli for the Maple Leafs, but the Lightning quickly responded with four consecutive goals in the first period, showcasing their offensive prowess. Ryan McDonagh, Jake Guentzel, Corey Perry, and Oliver Bjorkstrand all contributed to the Lightning's scoring in the first period, establishing a commanding lead. Brandon Hagel added to the Lightning's tally in the third period before Nicholas Robertson scored a consolation goal for the Maple Leafs.

The betting market, as reported by DraftKings, had the Lightning favored at -218, with a spread of 1.5 and a total set at 6.5. The odds reflected the Lightning's stronger season performance and the Maple Leafs' struggles. The conditions in Scotiabank Arena were typical for a late-season NHL game, with both teams vying for crucial points as they approached the playoff push.

Viewers were treated to a display of skill and strategy, particularly from the Lightning's top players, including Nikita Kucherov, who recorded multiple assists, and Brayden Point, who also contributed to the scoring. The Maple Leafs, despite their losses, showed flashes of potential, especially with Maccelli's early goal and Robertson's late effort.

Overall, this game highlighted the stark contrast between the two teams' current forms and the challenges the Maple Leafs face as they navigate injuries and a struggling offense.

Odds

BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
DraftKingsTB -218 6.5 o -102 / u -118 Tampa Bay Lightning -218 · Toronto Maple Leafs +180

What these prices pay on $100 · What these numbers mean

Injury report

  • Zack MacEwenInjured ReserveKneeToronto Maple Leafs
  • Max DomiOutBackToronto Maple Leafs
  • Dakota JoshuaOutUpper BodyToronto Maple Leafs
  • Auston MatthewsOutKneeToronto Maple Leafs
  • Chris TanevInjured ReserveAbdomenToronto Maple Leafs
  • Pontus HolmbergOutCollarboneTampa Bay Lightning

Leaders

  • AssistsWilliam Nylander1Toronto Maple Leafs
  • PointsWilliam Nylander1Toronto Maple Leafs
  • GoalsJake Guentzel1Tampa Bay Lightning
  • AssistsNikita Kucherov4Tampa Bay Lightning
  • PointsNikita Kucherov4Tampa Bay Lightning

Recent form

Toronto Maple Leafs

Last 10: 3-7Streak L62.6 scored · 3.8 allowed per game0-2 at home

  • L2-6at New York RangersMar 6
  • L3-4at New Jersey DevilsMar 5
  • L2-3vs Philadelphia FlyersMar 3
  • L2-5vs Ottawa SenatorsMar 1
  • L1-5at Florida PanthersFeb 27
  • L2-4at Tampa Bay LightningFeb 26
  • W5-2at Edmonton OilersFeb 4
  • W4-2at Calgary FlamesFeb 3
  • W3-2at Vancouver CanucksFeb 1
  • L2-5at Seattle KrakenJan 30

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last 10: 6-4Streak L43.4 scored · 3.2 allowed per game0-3 away

  • L1-4at Winnipeg JetsMar 6
  • L1-5at Minnesota WildMar 4
  • L2-6vs Buffalo SabresMar 1
  • L4-5at Carolina HurricanesFeb 27
  • W4-2vs Toronto Maple LeafsFeb 26
  • W6-1vs Florida PanthersFeb 6
  • W4-3vs Buffalo SabresFeb 4
  • W6-5vs Boston BruinsFeb 1
  • W4-1vs Winnipeg JetsJan 30
  • W2-0vs Utah MammothJan 27

Standings

TeamOt lossesLostPointsWon
Buffalo92310950
Tampa Bay62610650
Montreal102410648
Boston102710045
Ottawa11279944
Detroit10319241
Florida4388440
Toronto14367832

Box score

StatTampa Bay LightningToronto Maple Leafs
Blocked shots1111
Hits2622
Takeaways54
Shots total3329
Power play goals10
Power play opportunities43
Power play pct25.00.0
Short handed goals00
Shootout goals00
Faceoffs won2231
Faceoff percent41.558.5
Giveaways1215
Penalties45
Penalty minutes1113

How the scoring went

  1. 1st0-1Matias Maccelli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (38)
  2. 1st1-1Ryan McDonagh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (65), Brayden Point (23)
  3. 1st2-1Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (66)
  4. 1st3-1Corey Perry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (28), Anthony Cirelli (21)
  5. 1st4-1Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (67), Jake Guentzel (40)
  6. 3rd5-1Brandon Hagel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (22), Nikita Kucherov (68)
  7. 3rd5-2Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrap-around, assists: none

Venue

  • Scotiabank ArenaToronto
  • Attendance18514
  • OfficialsEric Furlatt, Justin Kea, Shandor Alphonso, Jeremy Faucher

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Fixture data from the league feeds. The report was written from the recorded facts for this game and nothing else.