Boise State Edges Texas State in Thrilling Finish
Saturday, October 31, 2026, 10:00 PM ET · Albertsons Stadium
Boise State Broncos 46, Texas State Bobcats 45, final. Our NCAAF picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.
The next free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.
Quick answers
Who won Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos?
Boise State Broncos beat Texas State Bobcats 46-45 at Albertsons Stadium on October 31, 2026.
Who was favored in Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos?
Boise State Broncos were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -410 (about 80% implied). The favorite won.
In a nail-biting contest at Albertsons Stadium, the Boise State Broncos narrowly defeated the Texas State Bobcats with a final score of 46-45. This matchup showcased the resilience and offensive prowess of both teams, making it a compelling fixture in the NCAAF landscape. Boise State entered the game with a strong home record of 7-1 and had been on a six-game winning streak, averaging 35.3 points per game while allowing 21.0. In contrast, Texas State, with a 4-4 record, had shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent form, where they averaged 38.1 points scored and 26.4 points allowed over their last ten games.
Boise State's recent performance has been impressive, with their last five games yielding a perfect record of 5-0, scoring an average of 35.2 points and allowing just 18.0. Their last outing before this game was a convincing 31-10 victory against the Washington State Cougars. The Broncos have been particularly formidable at home, boasting a perfect 5-0 record in their own stadium this season.
Texas State, on the other hand, had been riding a two-game winning streak leading into this matchup, including a significant 66-27 victory over Colorado State. However, their away record stood at 1-2, indicating some struggles when playing outside their home environment. The Bobcats' recent scoring surge has been notable, particularly highlighted by their last five games where they averaged 45.4 points while allowing 24.0.
The game was tightly contested throughout, reflecting the close nature of both teams' recent performances. Boise State's ability to score consistently at home contrasted with Texas State's offensive capabilities, especially in their last few outings. The market had Boise State favored by 10 points according to DraftKings, with a total set at 63.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.
In terms of injuries, the block does not provide specific details, but both teams had to navigate the challenges of player availability as they approached this critical matchup. The conditions at Albertsons Stadium on game day were likely favorable for a high-energy contest, contributing to the thrilling atmosphere.
Viewers were treated to a showcase of offensive talent, with both teams demonstrating their ability to score in bunches. Boise State's offensive strategy, combined with Texas State's recent scoring form, made for an entertaining game that kept fans on the edge of their seats until the final whistle. Ultimately, Boise State's narrow victory solidified their position as a formidable force in the NCAAF, while Texas State's performance highlighted their potential despite the loss.
What we said beforehand
The Boise State Broncos will face off against the Texas State Bobcats at Albertsons Stadium on November 1, 2026. This matchup is particularly intriguing as Boise State enters the game with a strong home record of 6-1, while Texas State comes in at 4-3 overall. Boise State has been on a six-game winning streak, showcasing their potent offense and solid defense. Their recent form has seen them score an average of 35.3 points per game while allowing 21.0 points, indicating a well-rounded team performance.
Boise State's last five games reflect their dominance, with victories over teams such as the Washington State Cougars (31-10) and Fresno State Bulldogs (38-31). Their offense is led by quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has thrown for 1,445 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Running back Dylan Riley has also been a key contributor, rushing for 963 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Broncos have been particularly effective at home, boasting a perfect 5-0 record in their last ten games at Albertsons Stadium.
On the other hand, Texas State has shown resilience, winning their last two games, including a narrow victory against Utah State (20-17). They have averaged 38.1 points per game over their last ten outings, but their defense has allowed an average of 26.4 points. Quarterback Brad Jackson has been a standout performer for the Bobcats, with 1,606 passing yards and 14 touchdowns, although he has also thrown 5 interceptions. Running back Torrance Burgess Jr. has contributed significantly with 889 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.
Historically, the Broncos have performed well at home, and their current form suggests they will be a tough opponent for the Bobcats. The weather forecast for the game indicates a temperature of 55°F with a 58% chance of precipitation and gusts up to 7 mph, which could impact play.
The betting market reflects Boise State's strong position, with DraftKings setting the spread at -10 for the Broncos. The total points line is set at 63.5, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring affair. Boise State's ability to maintain their offensive momentum against Texas State's defense will be a critical aspect to watch in this matchup.
Odds
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BOIS -10 | 63.5 o -110 / u -110 | Texas State Bobcats +320 · Boise State Broncos -410 |
Leaders
- Passing yardsMaddux Madsen24/33, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INTBoise State Broncos
- Rushing yardsDylan Riley25 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TDBoise State Broncos
- Receiving yardsRasean Jones9 REC, 117 YDS, 3 TDBoise State Broncos
- Passing yardsBrad Jackson23/38, 327 YDS, 4 TDTexas State Bobcats
- Rushing yardsBrad Jackson9 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TDTexas State Bobcats
- Receiving yardsZechariah Sample2 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TDTexas State Bobcats
Recent form
Boise State Broncos
Last 10: 9-1Streak W635.3 scored · 21 allowed per game5-0 at home
- W31-10at Washington State CougarsOct 24
- W38-31at Fresno State BulldogsOct 11
- W37-18vs Utah State AggiesOct 3
- W32-7at Western Michigan BroncosSep 26
- W38-24vs South Dakota CoyotesSep 20
- W38-20vs Memphis TigersSep 12
- L27-34at Oregon DucksSep 5
- W38-21vs UNLV RebelsDec 6
- W25-24at Utah State AggiesNov 28
- W49-21vs Colorado State RamsNov 23
Texas State Bobcats
Last 10: 7-3Streak W238.1 scored · 26.4 allowed per game1-2 away
- W20-17vs Utah State AggiesOct 24
- W66-27vs Colorado State RamsOct 16
- L29-31at San Diego State AztecsOct 4
- W63-10vs Incarnate Word CardinalsSep 26
- W49-35vs North Texas Mean GreenSep 19
- L26-31vs UTSA RoadrunnersSep 12
- L7-59at Texas LonghornsSep 5
- W49-26vs South Alabama JaguarsNov 29
- W31-14vs UL Monroe WarhawksNov 22
- W41-14at Southern Miss Golden EaglesNov 15
Standings
| Team | Overall | In conference |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 7-1 | 4-0 |
| Oregon State | 5-2 | 3-0 |
| San Diego State | 4-5 | 3-2 |
| Texas State | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Utah State | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Fresno State | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Colorado State | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Washington State | 1-8 | 0-5 |
Box score
| Stat | Texas State Bobcats | Boise State Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| First downs | 16 | 29 |
| Third downs | 6-15 | 9-16 |
| Fourth downs | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Total yards | 429 | 484 |
| Net passing yards | 327 | 367 |
| Completions | 23/39 | 32/46 |
| Yards per pass | 8.4 | 8.0 |
| Rushing yards | 102 | 117 |
| Rushing attempts | 24 | 40 |
| Yards per rush | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| Penalties | 8-61 | 5-40 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Time of possession | 22:59 | 37:01 |
Win probability
Above the line favours Boise State Broncos, below favours Texas State Bobcats.
Venue
- Albertsons StadiumBoise, ID
- Attendance34429
Elsewhere
- Here's what fans need to know in the sports world today
- Predicting the College Football Playoff: Who's most likely to make the field?
- Jackson Arnold throws 3 TD passes, UNLV hands Northern Illinois its 10th straight loss, 31-24
- Clemson's Swinney irked by plane banner urging FSU to fire Norvell
- Northern Illinois answers as George Dimopoulos hauls in 61-yard TD
- Kickers and a resurgent USC steal the show in Week 9
Picks for NCAAF
NCAAF rules and settlement
- A 42-point college football spread is not a prediction of a 42-point win
- How the moneyline works in college football
- What reverse line movement means in college football
- What an injury report means in college football
- What weather means in college football
- What a divisional game means in college football