What a run line is
The run line is baseball's spread, and it is almost always the same number: 1.5 runs. The favourite has to win by two or more; the underdog side is covered by losing by one, as well as by winning.
Why the price swings so far
One run is a large share of a baseball game, and close games are the sport's normal shape rather than its exception. Moving a favourite from the moneyline to −1.5 therefore lengthens the price a long way — which is not a gift. You are being paid more because you are asking for more.
The bottom of the ninth is part of the market
A home team that is ahead does not bat in the ninth. It has one fewer chance to add the run that turns a one-run win into a two-run win, and that is a rule of the sport acting directly on this market. It is worth knowing which side of it your bet is on.
Alternate run lines
Some books also offer ±2.5 and beyond. Those are different bets with different prices, so read the number and not just the side: our picks carry the line as its own field for exactly this reason, and a minimum price attached to −1.5 says nothing about −2.5.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
Today's free pick, for your email
Team, bet, price and the hash it was sealed under, on this page the moment you send. Lose or win, it stays public.
or by email
Public record of the main pick, losses included: 115 won, 44 lost. See every pick
One free pick a day by email until you unsubscribe, in one click. 21+.