The second spike, at seven
A touchdown with the extra point. Historically the second-tallest bar in the NFL margin distribution, and the reason 6.5, 7 and 7.5 behave differently from 5.5, 6 and 6.5.
Seven is the sport's other atomic unit, so a one-score game frequently ends exactly there. It is a smaller spike than three because there are more ways to reach a seven-point margin from different scorelines and more ways to leave it.
This is the number most affected by the rise in two-point conversions. A successful two-point try turns what would have been a seven-point margin into eight, and the shift is measurable across recent seasons.
Which is where it goes wrong. Key-number tables built on older data overstate seven and understate eight, and most tables in circulation were built on older data. Using one uncritically prices the wrong bar.
What to do with it. When buying points through seven, check whether your source's frequencies come from recent seasons or from the era before two-point attempts became routine.
The archive
What the published price did in the NFL
276 games in the NFL that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 25, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 155 | 263 | 58.9% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 117 | 276 | 42.4% |
| The total went over | 143 | 274 | 52.2% |
| The home side won | 134 | 276 | 48.6% |
- Points in a game, on average
- 44.26
- Winning margin, on average
- 11.25
How wide the games were
Over 457 finished games in the NFL with a score — a margin needs no price, so this sample is wider than the one above.
- Half were decided by this or less
- 8
- One in ten by this or more
- 24
- The widest
- 38
How they ended
Over 457 finished games in the NFL whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 27 | 457 | 5.9% |
8 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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