How to verify a settled pick yourself
Everything you need is printed on the archive row itself, and none of it is behind the paywall once a day has settled. Seven fields, one vertical bar between each, SHA-256. It takes one line in a terminal, and it depends on nothing we do afterwards.
1. Take the fields off the row
Open the results archive and pick a settled day. You need eight things from it — seven that go into the string, plus the hash you are checking against:
- the date of the day
- the fixture, exactly as printed: away team, spaced em dash, home team
- the market
- the published price and the minimum price
- the kick-off time, copied exactly, offset included
- the salt, which appears on the row once the pick has settled
- the commitment hash, which has been on the row since before kick-off
2. Join them with a bar and hash it
printf '%s' '…the string above…' | shasum -a 256
On Linux the command is sha256sum. The 64 characters it prints should be the commitment hash on the row, character for character.
3. The five things that trip people up
- Two decimals, always. The archive shows a price as 1.9; the hashed string carries 1.90. Both prices are written to exactly two decimals.
- The bar has no spaces around it. It is a single character between fields.
- The fixture is one field. Away team, space, em dash, space, home team — copy it from the row rather than retyping it, because a hyphen is not an em dash.
- The kick-off is copied verbatim, in the ISO 8601 form the archive prints, with its offset.
- Use printf, not echo. A trailing newline is part of the input and changes the hash.
If it does not match
Check the two decimals and the em dash first; that is nearly always it. If it still does not match, write to [email protected] with the date of the day — that is enough, nothing else is needed — and we will send back that day's receipt. A row that does not verify is a fault worth stopping for, not a rounding error, and it is treated as one: we run the same check before every release and again before every salt is published, and a row that fails either one is blocked rather than shown.
The archive
What the published price did in US sports
11,262 games in US sports that are over and carried a price when we wrote them up, between November 24, 2025 and November 6, 2026. Each count sits beside what it is out of, and the share is the one divided by the other.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| The shorter price won | 7,058 | 10,936 | 64.5% |
| The favourite covered the handicap | 3,373 | 7,003 | 48.2% |
| The total went over | 5,518 | 11,236 | 49.1% |
| The home side won | 6,361 | 11,262 | 56.5% |
How they ended
Over 16,021 finished games in US sports whose result line says how it ended — the feed's own one-line verdict, not a reading of the play.
| What | How often | Out of | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Went past regulation | 1,212 | 16,021 | 7.6% |
| Settled on a shootout | 161 | 16,021 | 1.0% |
| Called before the end | 9 | 16,021 | 0.1% |
286 games landed exactly on the number — the handicap or the total — so they are in the counts they are out of and in neither result.
The prices counted here are DraftKings', as they stood when we last wrote each game up — one snapshot per game, near kick-off for almost all of them, and never a closing line. So this says what the published line did, not how it moved on the way there.
A season that happened. Nothing here predicts the next game, and none of it is advice.
Counted November 6, 2026.
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