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Odds boosts: how to tell a real one from a repriced one

A boost raises the price on a specific selection, usually with a stake cap. Whether it is worth anything depends entirely on the price it started from: a boost from a number that was already worse than the market's is a discount on an overcharge, and the boosted price can still be the worst available.

Boosts are a marketing instrument built out of the same machinery as pricing, which means the starting number is chosen. An operator selecting which selection to boost is also selecting the one whose unboosted price they are happy to be seen improving, and there is no rule requiring that price to have been competitive.

Two boosts, one worth taking Selection A is boosted from +150 to +180 while three other books show +185. The boost is real and still leaves you short. Selection B is boosted from +200 to +230 while the best elsewhere is +205. That one is genuinely the best price on the market, and it is the only one of the two worth the click.

It does not mean the selection became more likely. The boost is a change to what you are paid, not to what happens, and a boosted price on an outcome that rarely occurs is still a price on an outcome that rarely occurs.

That is also the expensive part. The comparison that gets skipped is the one against other books rather than against the pre-boost number. 'Was 150, now 180' is a comparison with the operator's own previous opinion, which is not information about whether 180 is a good price.

What to do with it. Check the boosted price against two other books before taking it. If it is not the best number available, the boost has told you what the original price was, and nothing else.

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