Closing line value and pick services

Closing line value, or CLV, compares two prices on the same bet: the one you took and the one on offer at the start of the game. If you took -110 and the market closed at -125 on the same side, you got a better price than the final one. Over many bets, a habit of beating the close is one of the few signs that a bettor or a service is finding prices the market later agrees with. It is not a promise of anything, and a handful of bets cannot show it.

The calculation, with American odds

Convert both prices to implied probability, then compare. At -110, the implied probability is 110 divided by 210, or about 52.4%. At -125, it is 125 divided by 225, or about 55.6%. You paid a price that implied 52.4% for a side the market ended up pricing at 55.6%. The gap, about 3.2 points, is the value in that single case.

Why it is a better test than a streak

A win-loss record over a few weeks is mostly luck. Prices are less noisy. A service that publishes its price before the game gives you something to compare with the close, even on a day the pick loses. A service that publishes no price gives you nothing. What closing line value is and measuring closing line value cover the method in detail.

What a buyer on Whop can record

• The published price from the Sealed picks post.
• The minimum price in the same post.
• The price you actually got, and the time.
• The closing price, from whichever source you use at kickoff.

BetsBeats posts the published price and the minimum price on every main pick, so the first two columns are done for you. The last two are yours to record. BetsBeats makes no claim here about how its published prices compare with the close. The point of the exercise is that you can check for yourself, and a sample of a few days will not settle it.

Cautions

• Beating the close is not the same as winning. A bet with value can lose, and a bet without it can win. See why beating the close is not the same as making money.
• The close depends on the source. Different places close at slightly different numbers. Pick one source and use it every time.
• Minimum price is a floor, not a target. A pick taken at the minimum can still beat the close if the line moves your way, and can fail to if it moves against you.
• A small sample proves nothing. Thirty days of CLV is still thirty data points.

What to do with a CLV log

After a month or two of bets, put the columns side by side. Count how many times your price beat the close, how many times it matched, and how many times it was worse. A habit of beating the close is a point in a service's favour, and a habit of getting worse prices than the close suggests you are late to a move, or that the line is moving against the picks. Either way, you are working from your own numbers rather than from a claim.

CLV is a tool for judging process over many bets. It does not make any single pick safer. Everything here is for adults aged 21 or over, and every pick can lose.