Toledo Rockets Dominate Buffalo Bulls in Final Showdown
Friday, March 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET · Savage Arena
Toledo Rockets 99, Buffalo Bulls 78, final. Our NCAAB picks are sealed as a hash before kickoff and settled in public, losses included.
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Quick answers
Who won Buffalo Bulls vs Toledo Rockets?
Toledo Rockets beat Buffalo Bulls 99-78 at Savage Arena on March 6, 2026.
Who was favored in Buffalo Bulls vs Toledo Rockets?
Toledo Rockets were the favorite at DraftKings, moneyline -258 (about 72% implied). The favorite won.
The Toledo Rockets delivered a commanding performance against the Buffalo Bulls, clinching a decisive 99-78 victory at Savage Arena. This matchup was particularly noteworthy as both teams entered with identical records of 17-14, making the stakes high for both sides. The Rockets showcased their offensive prowess, scoring an impressive total of 99 points, significantly outpacing the Bulls' 78.
Toledo's recent form had been mixed, with a record of 5-5 over their last ten games and a streak of one loss prior to this victory. They averaged 78.1 points scored per game while allowing 73.8. In their last five games, they had a record of 3-2, with an average of 78.8 points scored and 73.0 points allowed. The Rockets had a solid home record of 3-1 in their last four games, which included a notable win against the Northern Illinois Huskies and a strong showing against the Eastern Michigan Eagles.
Conversely, the Buffalo Bulls were struggling with a 4-6 record in their last ten games and had just snapped a losing streak with a win against Eastern Michigan. They averaged 75.8 points scored and allowed 77.5 points during that stretch. The Bulls had a home record of 1-4 in their last five games, showcasing their difficulties on the road.
In terms of head-to-head meetings, this matchup marked the third encounter between the two teams in the current season, with the Rockets winning two of the three games. Their previous meetings included a loss for Toledo on March 1, 2025, where they fell 74-87 to the Bulls, but they had also secured a victory earlier in the season with an 87-74 win at home.
Injuries did not appear to be a significant factor in this game, as both teams fielded their usual lineups. The market had set the odds with Toledo favored by 5.5 points according to DraftKings, indicating a strong belief in their ability to perform at home. The total points line was set at 155.5, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair.
The conditions at Savage Arena were conducive to a high-paced game, with a lively crowd supporting the Rockets. As the game unfolded, viewers were treated to a series of exciting scoring plays, including a standout moment when Mynor Strong made a 24-foot three-point jumper, assisted by Sonny Wilson, pushing Toledo's lead to 91-76. Jaylan Ouwinga was particularly effective, contributing significantly with multiple layups and free throws, including a highlight alley-oop dunk that energized the home crowd.
Overall, the Rockets' ability to maintain a high scoring average while effectively controlling the pace of the game was evident. Their final victory probability stood at an impressive 99.9%, showcasing their dominance throughout the contest. The game served as a testament to Toledo's offensive capabilities and resilience, especially as they head into the closing stretch of the season.
Odds
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TOL -5.5 | 155.5 o -110 / u -110 | Buffalo Bulls +210 · Toledo Rockets -258 |
Leaders
- PointsSonny Wilson24Toledo Rockets
- AssistsLeroy Blyden Jr.13Toledo Rockets
- ReboundsLeroy Blyden Jr.7Toledo Rockets
- PointsRyan Sabol26Buffalo Bulls
- AssistsDerrick Talton Jr.3Buffalo Bulls
- ReboundsNoah Batchelor7Buffalo Bulls
Recent form
Toledo Rockets
Last 10: 5-5Streak L178.1 scored · 73.8 allowed per game3-1 at home
- L72-74at Miami (OH) RedHawksMar 4
- W79-67at Ohio BobcatsFeb 28
- W79-69vs Northern Illinois HuskiesFeb 25
- W94-75vs Eastern Michigan EaglesFeb 21
- L70-80at Bowling Green FalconsFeb 14
- W90-79at Western Michigan BroncosFeb 12
- L71-73at James Madison DukesFeb 7
- L72-75vs Kent State Golden FlashesFeb 4
- W73-55vs Ball State CardinalsJan 31
- L81-91at Akron ZipsJan 28
Buffalo Bulls
Last 10: 4-6Streak W175.8 scored · 77.5 allowed per game3-2 away
- W72-67vs Eastern Michigan EaglesMar 3
- L70-75vs Central Michigan ChippewasFeb 28
- L85-99at Akron ZipsFeb 25
- W86-82at Massachusetts MinutemenFeb 21
- L70-72vs Northern Illinois HuskiesFeb 17
- W63-53at Ball State CardinalsFeb 12
- L69-81at South Alabama JaguarsFeb 7
- L71-73vs Miami (OH) RedHawksFeb 3
- L83-95vs Ohio BobcatsJan 31
- W89-78at Bowling Green FalconsJan 28
Standings
| Team | Overall | Games behind | In conference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | 32-2 | - | 18-0 |
| Akron | 29-6 | 1 | 17-1 |
| Kent State | 24-10 | 4 | 14-4 |
| Toledo | 19-15 | 7 | 11-7 |
| Bowling Green | 18-14 | 9 | 9-9 |
| Ohio | 15-17 | 9 | 9-9 |
| Buffalo | 17-15 | 11 | 7-11 |
| Massachusetts | 17-16 | 11 | 7-11 |
| Ball State | 12-19 | 11 | 7-11 |
| Central Michigan | 10-21 | 12 | 6-12 |
| Western Michigan | 10-21 | 14 | 4-14 |
| Eastern Michigan | 10-21 | 14 | 4-14 |
| Northern Illinois | 9-21 | 10 | 4-14 |
Box score
| Stat | Buffalo Bulls | Toledo Rockets |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | 31-58 | 38-63 |
| Field goal % | 53 | 60 |
| Three-pointers | 10-25 | 12-24 |
| Three-point % | 40 | 50 |
| Free throws | 6-9 | 11-15 |
| Free throw % | 67 | 73 |
| Rebounds | 29 | 28 |
| Offensive rebounds | 10 | 10 |
| Defensive rebounds | 19 | 18 |
| Assists | 11 | 27 |
| Steals | 5 | 9 |
| Blocks | 1 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 6 |
| Team turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Technical fouls | 1 | 0 |
| Technical fouls, total | 1 | 0 |
| Flagrant fouls | 0 | 0 |
| Points off turnovers | 8 | 18 |
| Fast-break points | 7 | 11 |
| Points in the paint | 40 | 48 |
| Fouls | 10 | 11 |
| Largest lead | 4 | 20 |
| Lead changes | 2 | 2 |
| Time in front | 6 | 90 |
How the scoring went
- 2nd Half45-50Angelo Brizzi makes layup
- 2nd Half45-52Sean Craig makes 2-foot jumper (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half48-52Matas Buteliauskas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ezra McKenna assists)
- 2nd Half48-55Sonny Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Parks assists)
- 2nd Half48-58Sonny Wilson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Will James Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half50-58Derrick Talton Jr. makes layup (Ryan Sabol assists)
- 2nd Half50-60Sonny Wilson makes driving layup (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half51-60Angelo Brizzi makes free throw 1 of 2
- 2nd Half52-60Angelo Brizzi makes free throw 2 of 2
- 2nd Half52-61Austin Parks makes free throw 1 of 2
- 2nd Half55-61Ryan Sabol makes 26-foot three point jumper
- 2nd Half55-63Leroy Blyden Jr. makes layup
- 2nd Half55-65Austin Parks makes 4-foot dunk (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half58-65Ryan Sabol makes 25-foot three point jumper
- 2nd Half58-68Mynor Strong makes 23-foot three point jumper (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half60-68Derrick Talton Jr. makes driving layup
- 2nd Half60-69Leroy Blyden Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- 2nd Half60-70Leroy Blyden Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- 2nd Half60-72Leroy Blyden Jr. makes layup (Mynor Strong assists)
- 2nd Half62-72Ryan Sabol makes layup (Tim Oboh assists)
- 2nd Half62-74Sean Craig makes 0-foot tip in layup
- 2nd Half65-74Ryan Sabol makes 27-foot three point jumper
- 2nd Half68-74Ryan Sabol makes 26-foot three point jumper (Angelo Brizzi assists)
- 2nd Half68-77Sonny Wilson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half69-77Tim Oboh makes free throw 2 of 2
- 2nd Half69-79Sonny Wilson makes 3-foot jumper
- 2nd Half71-79Angelo Brizzi makes layup
- 2nd Half71-82Mynor Strong makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylan Ouwinga assists)
- 2nd Half74-82Ryan Sabol makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Talton Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half74-84Jaylan Ouwinga makes layup (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half74-85Jaylan Ouwinga makes free throw 1 of 1
- 2nd Half74-88Sean Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sonny Wilson assists)
- 2nd Half76-88Ryan Sabol makes layup
- 2nd Half76-91Mynor Strong makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sonny Wilson assists)
- 2nd Half78-91Derrick Talton Jr. makes layup
- 2nd Half78-93Jaylan Ouwinga makes 6-foot alley oop dunk (Leroy Blyden Jr. assists)
- 2nd Half78-94Leroy Blyden Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- 2nd Half78-96Jaylan Ouwinga makes layup
- 2nd Half78-97Jaylan Ouwinga makes free throw 1 of 1
- 2nd Half78-99Toby Nwokolo makes layup (Will James Jr. assists)
Win probability
Above the line favours Toledo Rockets, below favours Buffalo Bulls.
Venue
- Savage ArenaToledo, OH
- Attendance4539
- OfficialsTim Comer, Chad Barlow, John Floyd
Elsewhere
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- Men's NCAA basketball 2026-27 Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings
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- Michigan 5-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. (knee) to miss season
- With $6.5 million left on deal, UCLA fires AD Martin Jarmond