Bengals Edge Dolphins in Close Contest

What we said beforehand

The Miami Dolphins will host the Cincinnati Bengals at Hard Rock Stadium on October 11, 2026, in a matchup that highlights the struggles of the Dolphins this season. Miami enters the game with a home record of 0-4, while the Bengals come in with an away record of 2-2. This game is crucial for the Dolphins as they look to break a five-game losing streak and find some momentum in their season.

The Dolphins have not found success in their last five games, losing each of them with scores of 17-12 against the Atlanta Falcons, 27-13 to the Las Vegas Raiders, 35-13 against the San Francisco 49ers, 24-10 to the Kansas City Chiefs, and 15-10 against the Minnesota Vikings. Over these five games, they have averaged just 11.2 points scored while allowing 27.8 points, indicating significant struggles on both sides of the ball. In contrast, the Bengals have had a mixed bag of results in their last five games, winning against the Philadelphia Eagles (30-13), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (33-27), and Houston Texans (20-6), but losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers (30-27) and Jacksonville Jaguars (22-17). Cincinnati has scored an average of 23.0 points in their last five games while allowing 21.0 points.

At home, the Dolphins have a record of 2-2 in their last ten games, but they have been unable to secure a win in their last five outings. They have averaged 16.7 points scored and allowed 25.6 points during this stretch. Conversely, the Bengals have a strong away record of 3-2 in their last ten games, with an average of 26.3 points scored and 21.7 points allowed.

In terms of head-to-head matchups, the Dolphins have struggled against the Bengals, losing their last encounter on December 21, 2025, with a score of 21-45. This record puts added pressure on Miami as they seek to turn the tide in this rivalry.

Injury concerns loom large for both teams. The Dolphins will be without several key players, including Reese Taylor (quadriceps), Justin Joly (concussion), Caleb Douglas (ankle), Chukwuebuka Godrick (coach's decision), and Kaytron Allen (coach's decision). The Bengals will also be missing Colbie Young (knee), Landon Robinson (coach's decision), Connor Lew (coach's decision), Kyle Dugger (quadriceps), and Jack Endries (coach's decision). The absence of these players could significantly impact both teams' performance.

The betting market, as provided by DraftKings, has set the Bengals as 7-point favorites with a moneyline of -355, while the Dolphins are at +280. The total for the game is set at 44.5 points, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. These odds reflect the current sentiment around both teams, particularly given the Dolphins' struggles this season.

Weather conditions for the game are expected to be warm, with a temperature of 91°F, a 25% chance of precipitation, and wind gusts reaching 14 mph. These factors could play a role in the game, particularly in how both teams approach their offensive strategies.

Viewers should watch for how the Dolphins' offense, led by Malik Willis, who has thrown for 712 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions this season, responds to the Bengals' defense. The Bengals' Joe Burrow has been effective, throwing for 1,171 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The performance of the rushing attacks will also be crucial, with Ollie Gordon II leading the Dolphins and Chase Brown carrying the load for the Bengals. The outcome of this game could hinge on which team can better manage the injuries and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.